FOLLOWING a small decline this month, total world wheat and coarse grains production in 2020-21 at 2219 million tonnes (Mt) is now 33Mt above the 2019-20 crop, according to the latest International Grains Council (IGC) monthly report.
Despite production declines seen over recent months, world maize output is still expected to be record 1146Mt, with record crops also anticipated for wheat and barley. The previous record world maize crop, grown in 2016/17, was 1135Mt.
World total grains trade is predicted to expand by 15Mt year on year to a fresh high of 409Mt, including a twelfth consecutive annual increase in maize shipments, record trade in wheat, and a four-season peak for sorghum.
Consumption rising, stocks trending lower
In its November report, IGC has trimmed its forecast of world total grain 2020-21 ending stock to 616Mt, the fourth consecutive year on year decline.
Ending stocks remain higher than in any of the years prior to the 2016-17 high-production-year spike (Figure 1).
Total grains consumption is predicted to expand by 28Mt year on year to 2221Mt, driven by higher use of maize (+16Mt), wheat (+6Mt) and sorghum (+3Mt).
New peaks for world food and feed use of grains are envisaged, while only a partial recovery from the decline of the previous season is foreseen for industrial use, largely linked to subdued demand for maize processing for ethanol.
Global grains stocks are projected to drawn down for the fourth consecutive year, to a five-season low of 616Mt, down 2Mt from 2019-20, entirely because of a 23Mt reduction for maize. Most of the year-on-year contraction in maize stocks is in China and the US. Stock accumulations are predicted for other grains, including wheat which is expected to increase by 13Mt to a record level, 4Mt for barley and 2Mt for oats.
Price indices mixed
Soybean price sentiment (Figure 3 blue line) was buoyed by solid export interest and underlying worries about South American crop weather.
The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-index surged by 7 per cent this month to its highest since mid-2014
While the IGC price sub-index for barley strengthened over the month, the indices for rice and maize firmed slightly also.
The wheat price index was slightly weaker.