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Cuts for Ukraine feature in USDA’s April WASDE

Grain Central, April 11, 2022

Ukraine farmers are planting corn, sunflower seed and spring cereals as the impact of Russia’s invasion cuts the export outlook for its current-crop wheat, corn and sunseed. Photo: UkrAgroConsult

THE USDA has cut its forecast for European Union wheat exports 3.5 million tonnes (Mt) to 34Mt in its April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report and accompanying Grain: World Market and Trade reports released Friday.

The EU reduction reflects weak exports in January and February from France and Germany, a smaller crop in Lithuania, and Hungary and Bulgaria imposing export restrictions in light of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The war has stymied Ukraine’s exports out of the Black Sea, and USDA has therefore cut its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat 2021-22 exports by 1Mt to 19Mt.

“The majority of Ukraine’s exports have already been shipped with limited additional amounts expected for the remainder of 2021-22,” the WASDE report stated.

Competitive pricing and continued exports out of the Black Sea have seen a 1Mt to 33Mt lift in current-crop Russian wheat exports.

“Russia’s recent military action in Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally.”

World wheat exports drop

The forecast for 2021-22 global wheat trade is down 3Mt from the March estimate to 200.1Mt as increased exports from Russia, Brazil and Argentina are seen as insufficient to offset lower shipment from the EU, Ukraine, US, and Kazakhstan.

Supplies are increased by 700,000t to 1069.5Mt on a combination of higher beginning stocks for Pakistan, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, and higher production for Pakistan and Argentina more than offsetting lower EU production.

Projected 2021-22 world consumption is raised 3.8Mt to 791.1Mt primarily on higher food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use for India.

Based on greater offtake from government stocks to food-distribution programs, India’s FSI is raised 4.4Mt to a record 100.9Mt.

Projected 2021-22 world ending stocks are lowered 3.1Mt tons to 278.4Mt with India accounting for most of the reduction only partially offset by higher EU stocks.

Global stocks are projected at a five-year low.

The outlook for 2021-22 US wheat this month is for stable supplies, lower domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks, with US wheat exports in 2021-22 forecast to be the lowest since 2015-16.

The projected season-average US farm price for the remainder of 2021-22is up US$0.10 per bushel this month to $7.60, its highest since 2012-13.

Ukraine corn exports slashed

USDA has cut its estimate for Ukraine corn exports in 2021-22 to 23Mt, down from 27.5Mt seen last month.

Partially offsetting this is a 1.5Mt increase for Brazil’s exports to 44.5Mt, which reflects increased area as much of its second, or safrinha, crop enters its critical development phase this month.

Canadian corn exports are now seen at 1.8Mt, up 800,000t from last month.

USDA’s forecast for China’s 2021-22 corn imports is now seen at 211Mt, down 3Mt from the March estimate, largely due to reduced availability out of Ukraine.

This month’s 2021-22 US corn outlook is for offsetting changes to feed and residual use and corn used for ethanol production, with unchanged ending stocks.

Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the EU.

Indonesia corn production is higher as greater area more than offsets a slight reduction to yield.

Corn production is raised for the EU, mostly reflecting increases for Germany, Romania, and the Czech Republic. Foreign barley production is lower with reductions for the EU and Tunisia.

Major global trade changes include lower forecast corn exports for Ukraine, Serbia, and Paraguay, with increases for Brazil, Canada, and India.

Non-US corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, Serbia, the EU, and Indonesia that are partly offset by a reduction for Canada.

Global corn ending stocks, at 305.5Mt, are up 4.5Mt from last month.

Sunseed crush impacted

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has impacted Ukraine’s ability to crush sunflower seed, and this has lowered meal and oil supplies for markets including China, EU, India, and Turkey.

Partly offsetting these declines are higher palm and rapeseed-oil imports for China, higher soybean oil-imports for India, higher soybean-meal imports for Turkey, and higher soybean imports for the EU.

US soybean supply and use changes for 2021-22 include increased exports partly offsetting lower exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia.

The 2021-22 global soybean forecasts include lower production, crush, trade, and ending stocks.

Global soybean production is reduced 3.1Mt to 350.7Mt on lower crops for Brazil and Paraguay.

Paraguay’s forecast soybean crush has been lowered on reduced supplies, and China’s crush has also been reduced on its current pace to date.

The estimate for China’s soybean imports has been cut 3Mt to 91Mt.

Global soybean stocks are seen as down 400,000t to 89.6Mt, mainly on lower US and Argentine stocks.

Source: USDA

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