Weather: Rain has dropped off a little for Kansas with only 8mm for the next 15 days. However, at the same time, higher temps are forecast to rally back towards 30°C.
Divergence in the models across Qld and NNSW – BOM doesn’t have the rainfall that some of the other models have but there is hope.
Elsewhere on the globe, weather actually looks pretty benign.
Markets: Trump and Iran have both displayed a willingness to end the conflict but, how the world looks if and when that happens is still very much uncertain. The infrastructure damage in the Middle East, the fact that there isn’t any certainty around the strait opening up, and the fact that there have been similar sound bites all through this conflict calling the end of the conflict.
One of the certainties is that energy markets will take time to revert, particularly Australian diesel. Delivered markets will reflect the added supply chain costs and the threat of outright rationing remains. While the govt has reduced the excise there are some easy wins from a consumption perspective – ie opening more consumer destinations to roadtrains vs b-doubles. Not sure why this is taking so long.

Day Ahead – Australia: The Australian market is fragmented to say the least. Full profiles in SA and Vic, a lack of rainfall in the north, the lack of wheat export demand make the Aussie market more about where you are.
Even with the talk of a ceasefire in Iran – there isn’t any short term relief for the Aussie energy market – and, to be honest, the consumer hasn’t felt the brunt of this yet.

Global wheat: Chicago +9.25c, Kansas +9.25c, MATIF +1.00
Wheat markets were well supported throughout the session, with prices bid ahead of the USDA US Prospective Plantings report and the bullish data only adding to the positive tone.
All wheat acres were estimated at 43.8 million versus trade expectations of 44.7 million, down 3 percent year on year and the second lowest total in over a century.
Winter wheat came in at 32.4 million acres against estimates of 32.9 million, with spring wheat at 9.415 million versus 9.8 million expected.
Losses in winter acres were predominantly in HRW and SRW, with the SRW shortfall alone enough to remove around 15 million bushels from production. HRW balance sheets remain less snug, with a 650 million bushel crop and 260 million in exports still leaving a 400 million bushel carryout.
Quarterly stocks came in largely in line at 1.300 billion bushels versus expectations of 1.305 billion.
Kansas City rallied as much as 19.5 cents ahead of the report before easing back, with an intraday break in crude oil and limited upside room capping the session highs.
Looking ahead, weather across the southern plains over the next two weeks will be closely watched, with the distribution of rainfall critical for both HRW and SRW prospects.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn +2.00c, Soybeans +11.25c, MATIF Canola +6.25
Corn acres came in at 95.4 million versus trade expectations of 94.5 million, broadly in line though the figures are subject to debate given record low grower survey participation flagged by the USDA.
Corn stocks were friendly, coming in around 100 million bushels below trade ideas, lending support to the view that the USDA’s lofty feed usage estimate is likely correct.
The fertiliser cost surge stemming from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure raises genuine doubts about whether final planted acres will exceed March intentions as has been the trend over recent years.
Soybean acres came in at 84.7 million versus 85.5 million expected, with stocks at 2,105 million bushels just above the average trade guess of 2,086 million.
The soybean complex settled with May soybeans up 11.25 cents, soymeal up $1.50 and soyoil up 41 points, though the May crush margin eased 3.5 cents to $2.8275.
Canola futures on the ICE were firmer on the back of strength in vegetable oils broadly, with Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil all higher.
Statistics Canada reported canola deliveries for February at 2.021 million tonnes, up from 1.615 million a year earlier, while crush volumes came in at 951,353 tonnes versus 882,610 in February 2025.
The Brazilian soybean harvest continues to lag in Rio Grande do Sul, which was only 10pc complete versus 24pc at the same point last year, though recent rains have assisted late developing crops.

Macro: AUD unchanged, Dow +1125.37, Crude -1.50
Equity markets surged on Tuesday after Iran’s official news agency reported that President Pezeshkian was open to ending the war with the US, with the S&P 500 rising 2.9pc in its biggest single-day gain since May.
The Dow gained over 1,125 points as the rally broadened across sectors including airlines, semiconductors and financials.
President Trump separately told reporters the US would likely end military operations in Iran within two to three weeks, stating that the core objective of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons had been achieved.
He indicated the Strait of Hormuz would be left to other nations to resolve, a position that alarmed some Gulf allies and energy markets given the waterway carries roughly 20pc of global seaborne oil.
Crude oil fell on the prospect of a conflict wind-down, though analysts noted that if the strait remains effectively closed for another six weeks or more, prices could need to rise significantly further to rebalance supply and demand.
Brent has surged around 60pc since the war began in early March, with US gasoline already above $4 per gallon. (AUD$1.53/lt)
NATO cohesion also came under fresh strain, with Spain, Italy and Poland among allies resisting US calls to participate, raising concerns that a prolonged fracture in the alliance would be the primary strategic beneficiary for Russia.

Local: WA bids were stronger, with canola at $795 current season and $830 for new crop; wheat was $335 and $365, while barley was $340 and $338 FIS Albany.
In the east of the country, bids were stronger again, with canola at $766 and new crop at $800; wheat was $335 and $365, while barley was $312 and $322 track Geelong.
Little has changed for most growers through the southern cropping regions ahead of seeding, with most able to secure enough fuel and fertiliser to get the crop in the ground. Secondary applications may be a little more challenging, but the general consensus is to cross that bridge when they come to it.
Northern markets continue to strengthen, with current season wheat and barley both around $400, and new crop wheat at $410, although liquidity remains very limited.