Weather: Weather remains mixed globally, with improving rainfall forecasts across the Canadian Prairies easing recent dryness concerns, while heat stress has begun to impact French wheat conditions. Southern China is expected to see above-normal rainfall and flooding risks through June, while India faces concerns over a weaker monsoon linked to El Niño.

Markets

Markets finished the month under pressure as improving prospects of a US-Iran agreement sparked broad fund liquidation across commodities. Wheat led losses on weak US export demand and favourable global production outlooks, while corn was dragged lower by long liquidation despite ongoing Chinese demand for Argentine origin. Soybeans and canola were more resilient, supported by strong crush margins, biofuel demand and underlying vegetable oil strength.

Day Ahead – Australia

Batten down the hatches in SA today, with strong winds and heavy rain forecast before the system pushes east into Victoria. WA growers were the beneficiaries over the weekend, with widespread falls of 10–50mm recorded across most cropping regions.
Markets will be softer across the board today following Friday night’s futures weakness, decent rainfall through WA, a wet outlook for much of the rest of the country this week, and a firmer AUD. With improved seasonal confidence and little fresh demand emerging, it shapes as another slow day for grain markets.

Global wheat: Chicago wheat futures came under heavy pressure to finish the month, with Chicago, Kansas and Minneapolis all sharply lower as funds liquidated long positions, crude oil weakened and geopolitical risk premium was removed from markets. Technical selling accelerated after key moving averages were broken.
US weekly wheat export sales disappointed, including sizeable old crop cancellations, reinforcing the view that US wheat remains uncompetitive versus other global origins despite poor crop conditions in parts of the Southern Plains.
Russia lifted its grain export forecast to 60 million tonnes (Mt), including 50Mt of wheat, while remaining optimistic on 2026 production given favourable winter crop conditions.
French wheat conditions declined last week as heat stress emerged, although conditions remain well above year-ago levels.
Argentina has made a rapid start to wheat planting on the back of favourable moisture, while Brazil is expected to increase imports due to lower domestic area and concerns around El Niño impacts.
The Philippines reportedly purchased 60kt feed wheat likely sourced from Australia.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn futures were hit by broad fund liquidation as easing Middle East tensions and the absence of immediate weather threats encouraged traders to reduce risk. China was reportedly active in the Argentine corn market, highlighting Argentina’s competitiveness into Asia.
Market attention now shifts to initial US corn condition ratings and whether forecast rainfall reaches drier areas of the Corn Belt.
Soybeans outperformed grains, supported by exceptional crush margins and ongoing strength in soybean oil. Optimism remains that China may ease tariffs and return as a buyer of US soybeans.
Strong biofuel demand continues to underpin soybean oil and crush economics, supporting domestic soybean consumption.
ICE canola futures gave back early gains as improved rainfall forecasts for the Canadian Prairies eased recent production concerns. Canadian exports and domestic crush both slowed week-on-week.
China approved an initial review of 73 GM corn varieties and one GM soybean variety, signalling continued support for biotechnology adoption.
Palm oil markets remained firm, supported by strength in competing vegetable oils, although uncertainty remains around Indonesia’s proposed export marketing arrangements.
Wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast for southern China, increasing flood risks for rice, fruit and vegetable production, while India faces concerns over an El Niño-weakened monsoon.

Macro: Commodity markets saw broad risk-off selling as reports emerged of progress toward a US-Iran agreement and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Equities rallied while crude oil fell sharply as war premium was removed.
Despite optimism, no final agreement has yet been confirmed and shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated.
Oil markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with traders cautious after several previous false starts in negotiations.
Fertiliser prices remain a growing concern globally, with elevated nitrogen costs linked to the conflict and likely to influence future crop profitability and planting decisions.
Base metals remained supported by supply concerns, particularly copper and aluminium, where tight inventories and ongoing disruptions continue to underpin prices.
A weaker US dollar, slightly lower bond yields and comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting temporary inflation pressures may be overlooked helped support broader financial markets.

Local markets: The week ended steady to slightly softer in the west with canola bid A$815/t current season and $850 new crop, wheat $351 and $361, and barley $327 and $328 FIS Albany.
In the east, canola was $778 current season and $812 new crop, wheat $330 and $353, and barley $310 and $321 track Geelong.
LSC forecasts roughly 40 percent of the 2026/27 Australian canola crop will be GM. WA accounts for the majority of this, with 60–65pc of the state’s production expected to be GM, down from 75pc last year as price spreads favour conventional varieties and the agronomic advantages of GM canola become less compelling.
North and south delivered markets are becoming more aligned after northern wheat traded at close to a $100 premium over southern values. Northern markets have been hit hard by improved seasonal conditions and increased liquidity, with offers following bids lower. In the south, bids have eased, but grower selling has been far less aggressive.