Markets

Daily Market Wire 1 March 2024

Lachstock Consulting, March 1, 2024

Market moves were mixed and generally less than 1 percent.

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat up US1.5c/bu to 576.25c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat up 6.25c/bu to 587.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat up 3c/bu to 659c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 down €1.25/t to €196/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 up 1c/bu to 429.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 4.5c/bu to 1140.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$2.70/t to $593.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €3/t to €412/t;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$3.50/t to $327/t;
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$2/t to $333/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$304.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 2 points to US$0.6498.

International

Russian President Putin during his annual state-of-the-nation speech said the West faced the prospect of a nuclear response if it intervened more directly in the war in Ukraine. Alluding to comments made by Emmanuel Macron of possibly sending NATO troops to Ukraine, Putin said that NATO countries “must, in the end, understand” that “all this truly threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons.”  

Railway transport operator Rusagrotrans noted that Russia’s Feb wheat exports estimate was raised by 0.2Mt, to 4.2Mt, potentially a record for the month. Accelerated pace of shipments in the second half of the month reflects improved weather conditions at ports. 

French container shipping giant CMA CGM expects disruptions to commercial shipping to last some months. CMA CGM has suspended most Red Sea voyages but is still sending some cargoes on a case-by-case basis when French navy escorts were possible. Maersk this week warned Red Sea disruptions could last into the second half of the year. 

The Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees 2023 palm oil production at 54.8Mt, up 7pc year on year, including crude palm oil at 50.1Mt and crude palm kernel oil at 4.8Mt. It forecast domestic consumption at 23.2Mt, up 10pc, including biodiesel use at 10.7Mt and food use at 10.3Mt, exports at 32.2Mt down 3pc, and carry out at 3.2Mt down 15pc. 

Refinitiv Commodities Research revised up its estimate of 2024-25 Indian wheat production by 0.4Mt to 112Mt (110.6Mt previous year) reflecting favourable near-normal rainfall in northern growing regions and forecasts for cool temperatures. Crop vegetation density levels are above the median in key producing states of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan. 

Thailand’s Feed Millers’ Association reportedly purchased 60,000t feed wheat, thought to be from the EU (Bulgaria, Germany or Romania), at US$248.50/t c&f, for Apr/May shipment. 

Jordan’s state grain buyer reportedly purchased 60,000t feed barley, at $219.50/t c&f, for May shipment.

Australia

WA wheat values have been trading sideways over the past few days, with grower bids for current season APW1 sitting at A$375-380/t FIS Kwinana. Feed barley prices have eased $5/t to a $325-330/t FIS price range for all major WA ports, while canola (CAN) values are holding around $655-665/t FIS for Kwinana, Albany & Esperance. ASX May 2024 wheat ended the day down $2/t at $333/t. 

The Bureau of Meteorology reported Australia’s third hottest summer on record and third wettest summer during an El Niño phase. Summer rainfall was average to above average across the eastern states with central/southern NSW, Vic and SA all receiving above to very much above summer rainfall. WA rainfall was close to average for summer, helped by recent Feb rainfall.  

The latest 3-month outlook is projecting warmer nights and days to continue, with much of the country having at least an 80 percent chance of above-average temperatures. There is a 60 to 75 percent chance of a drier than normal autumn for most of NSW, Vic, Qld and southeast SA. The outlook for most of WA’s cropping regions is neutral.

 

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