Markets

Daily Market Wire 1 October 2021

Lachstock Consulting, October 1, 2021

Soybeans led markets 2pc lower. Wheats also fell, then recovered, HRW closing 2pc firmer. The US dollar weakened.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US15.25c/bu to 725.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 20c/bu to 731.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December up 9c/bu to 912.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €2/t to €258/t;
  • Corn December contract down 2.25c/bu to 536.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 27.75c/bu to 1256c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract down C$0.70 to $893.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract down €7.50/t to €638.75/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.2 to 94.2;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.723;
  • CAD firmer at $1.268;
  • EUR weaker at $1.158;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $1.50/t to $338.50/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 up $1.10/t to $351.60/t.

International

Row crops sold off sharply overnight after the stocks report, although later session we did see some buying action back in from the lows – corn settled down 2 1/4¢ and beans -27 3/4¢ (Matif -7.5€, Winnipeg -$0.7).  Wheat saw pressure from the row crop selling pressure early pre report but firmed up later to retake new highs – Chicago wheat closed up 15 1/4¢, KC +20¢, Minny +9¢, and Matif +2 on the earlier close.  Macro markets had crude a quarter firmer to $75.3 WTI / $78.3 Brent and the DOW dropped 547 points.  The USD is slightly weaker with the dxy at 94.2, the AUD at 72.3¢, the CAD $1.267, and the EUR $1.158.

The September 1 stocks report released overnight delivers the final year-end stock figures for corn and beans and the Q1 ending stocks for wheat.  Soybean stocks were 256 million bushels (mbu) and were a massive “miss”, coming in nearly double pre-report estimates. Corn stocks were 1.2 bbu and wheat 1.78 bbu.

The Small Grains 2021 summary report published by USDA NASS overnight had “All wheat” production 1.65 billion bushels (bbu), of which HRW was 750 million bushels, well below the previous NASS estimate. Spring wheat (non-durum, but including some non-HRS white springs) came in about as expected at 331 mbu. There are normally some small adjustments to come, noting that not all the spring wheat and durum harvests are yet fully complete.

The ongoing China energy/fertilizer situation has seen markets focus on comments indicating China’s government is actively securing energy supplies.

The US weekly export sales numbers reported 1.1 million tonnes (Mt) beans sold, three quarters of which was to China, 0.4Mt corn and 0.3Mt wheat.

With the stocks report out, we’re now a week and a half from the next WASDE and market focus is already shifting back to the ongoing US row crop harvest.  Weather has been largely supportive for field work but starting to take a wetter turn across the central corn belt.  Yield ideas reportedly still good for some key bean areas, but a few disappointments on corn.

Ukrainian corn harvest also is pushing forward and expected to continue to ramp up early October, as is the early export program, with drier weather.

US winter wheat planting has also pushed along rapidly with the good weather. Dry conditions raised a few early flags but that is not uncommon for this point in the year and there is a long way for the crop to go.

Australia

Canola continuing to draw excitement locally with trades hitting $1000/t in WA yesterday.

Cereal markets were also firmer by a couple of bucks and are firming in early discussion again today after the board moves.

The fertiliser rally after the Chinese export bans has seen prices kick once again and attracted more interest in pre-buying and filling sheds.

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