International

The USDA September Stocks Report pegged US old crop corn stocks as of 1 September at 1.76 billion bushels, up 29pc year on year ago but below the pre-report expectation of 1.845 billion bushels. Soybean stocks are estimated at 342 million bushels, also up 29pc year on year, but below the average expectation of 351 million bushels. Wheat stocks came in at 1.986 billion bushels, above the trade’s expectation of 1.973 billion bushels and up 12pc year on year. USDA also released the Small Grains Summary today which pegged 2024-25 wheat production at 1.971 billion bushels, below the trade expectation of 1.966 billion bushels but up 9pc year on year (Sept WASDE 1.982mbu). The Grain Stocks report was considered neutral for wheat, mildly bullish for soybeans, and bullish for corn. The updated wheat production number was seen as neutral for wheat. 

Stratégie Grains cut its 2024-25 EU rapeseed production estimate by a further 0.2Mt, now seen at 16.7Mt (20Mt previous year). The revision largely reflects further cuts for Germany. In an early outlook for 2025-26 EU plantings, rapeseed area is projected to increase 4pc year on year. 

Ukraine Ag Ministry reported as at 27 Sept, 2024-25 harvest had yielded 50.4Mt, including 22.3Mt wheat, 5.5Mt barley, 3.5Mt canola and 6.6Mt sunflowerseed. It reported cumulative 2024-25 exports as at 27 Sept at 10.1Mt, up 58pc year on year, including wheat at 5.8Mt (+86pc), corn at 2.7Mt (+5pc), and barley at 1.3Mt (+108pc). 

International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA) members in the US are expected go on strike across East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, after contract negotiations broke down and their old contract expired yesterday. It is estimated that there could be widespread disruption across 14 US ports. 

US private exporters reported sales of 116kt of soybeans to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

It was a down day to start the week for all commodities in WA yesterday. Canola bids were down around $10/t to start the week with bids landing at around $760/t for conventional seed and $690/t for GM. WA cereals lost around $4/t with wheat being bid $355/t and barley $307/t. 

The east of Australia started the week a little better with no change to Friday’s bids. Canola was bid $724/t for conventional and $695/t for GM. Wheat was bid at $349/t and barley $305/t. 

This coming week has some decent rainfall on the forecast for parts of southeast SA and into Victoria, with 25-50mm forecast for the Western Districts, 15-25mm for the Wimmera with the best falls expected in the south, and 10mm is expected across the Mallee.