Markets

Daily Market Wire 2 December 2021

Lachstock Consulting, December 2, 2021

Rapeseed lifted 3pc overnight. All other markets, mostly firmer, confined their moves to less than 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up US3.25 cents per bushel to 790.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 3c/bu to 819.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March up 9.75c/bu to 1019.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €1.75/t to €287.25/t;
  • Corn March contract up 4c/bu to 571.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans March contract up 8.5c/bu to 1235c/bu
  • Winnipeg canola January 2022 contract up C$7.20/t to $994.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract up €17.75/t to €662.50/t;
  • US dollar index was up 0.1 to 96.0;
  • Dow Jones industrial average down 1 per cent.
  • AUD weaker at US$0.710;
  • CAD weaker at $1.282;
  • EUR weaker at $1.132;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down A$16/t to $409/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 down $10/t to $390/t.

International

Stop, consolidate and listen! Grains detached from outside markets last night with Chicago wheat up 3.25usc/bu, Kansas fell 3usc/bu while Minni increased 9.75usc/bu. French wheat December contract increased €2.5/mt while the Black Sea was quoted down US$1/mt. Corn increased 4usc/bu while China corn increased CNY$14/mt. Soybeans January contract increased 11usc/bu, soybean meal increased $6.6/st while beanoil fell 0.21usc/lb. Canola shook off the recent selling with Matif rallied €17.75 while Winnipeg increased C$7.20mt. The Dow couldn’t find the bottom pickers, falling 461 points while the AUD tried to push higher before sticking its head under 0.7100.

Wheat managed to lift its head after the macro+ COVID shock early this week. Global balance sheets are tight and, to the extent that the market need high quality grain, Australia as a solution has more than a small question mark over it.

As is the case almost every year at this time, dryness in the Texas Panhandle and south eastern Colorado is getting some attention.

Strong ethanol demand is the one shining light for US corn now. The ethanol corn October usage was up 8pc compared with year ago and was slightly above the trade estimates.

StoneX has pegged Brazil’s 2021-22 total corn crop estimate higher, from 119.8Mt to 120.1Mt, a decent uplift from last season’s 86Mt.

StatsCan will release crop estimates on Friday and traders are looking for 21.2Mt wheat vs 35.2Mt last year but higher than their last estimate. Canola is expected to come in at 12.8Mt vs 19.5Mt.

Ethiopia cancelled their wheat tender for 200,000t but Tunisia is still looking for 175,000t.

Australia

East coast wheat cash bids to growers were off $3-5/t yesterday.  SA values printed $3-5/t stronger on all wheat grades with a $20 increase on AGP bids in Outer Harbour zone.

East coast barley bids were firmer by $2-3 and SA was off $3-6 by the end of the day with some harvest pressure affecting bids.

Canola was off hard with bids off $20/t and more pressure expected today with international prices lower last night.

Two more canola vessels appeared on the stem in NSW, taking the total to three, potentially these new vessels may have more up the queue in part due to the problems in the wheat stem. We could be seeing more canola prioritised to the export pathways. In WA 0.1Mt canola November loadings are being rolled into December, so it is now looking like 0.45Mt November.

The receival data from bulk handlers GrainCorp and Viterra were still slow going with harvest delays last week due to weather. Viterra have now cracked over 1 million tonnes with large percentage of receivals being barley. The GrainCorp network has received 4.5Mt.

 

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