In the wheat pits Chicago settled up 3 usc/bu closing at 498.75usc/bu, Kansas was -3.5 usc/bu lower to settle at 411.5usc/bu, while Minni softened -11.5 usc/bu to go out at 533usc/bu. Corn gained 4.5 usc/bu to go out at 392.5usc/bu while Beans were up 13.5 usc/bu to settle at 919.5usc/bu WCE Canola rallied 0.9 CAD/mt closing at 452.2CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing lower by -1 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones fell 0 points, Crude was down -0.48 bbl the Aussie was -0.0046 lower to settle at 0.67027, the CAD softened -0.0018 while the EUR gained 0.0034.

Wheat gave up chasing corn overnight amid better weather forecast for the spring wheat belt along with the realization that US wheat is simply overvalued compared to competing origins.Corn kept on trucking into what is becoming the October WASDE show down. The range of yield estimates keep getting wider, FCStone putting out a 169.3bu/ac estimate last night, up from their last guess of 168.2bu/ac. The likelihood is that the Oct report is a fizzer but the fact the USDA went back and revised last year’s yield has many thinking they will want to be conservative with this year’s crop, especially given how late it is.

In the background the bean market has the same narrative however, given how sensitive the US balance sheet is to yield, beans could quickly start driving this market.

The unknown risk surrounding yet another face-to-face with the Chinese trade delegation shouldn’t be forgotten. The market has almost become immune to these talks given the lack of progress and, with a decent amount of assumed demand lost via ASF there is a complacency surrounding the eventual outcome.