Daily Market Wire 3 July 2024

Lachstock Consulting July 3, 2024

Canola rallied 4 percent. Wheat eased.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat down US7.75c/bu to 604.75c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 6.5c/bu to 608.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 1.5c/bu to 649.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €2.25/t to €235/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 up 0.75c/bu to 421.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 up 2c/bu to 1113c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C$24/t to C$651.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €5/t to €501/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat up A$6/t to $362/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley unchanged at $A303.90/t;
  • AUD dollar up 7 points to US$0.6667.


Wheat markets were collectively lower after Black Sea market analyst SovEcon increased its forecast of Russian wheat production to 84.1Mt (USDA 83Mt). This adjustment coincides with harvest pressure from the region as the global consumer lets the market come to them. There were reports initial stages of the Black Sea harvest were better than expected, although it is early days. Heat has returned to Russia’s Central and Volga regions. Warmer temperatures will affect production of the spring wheat crop which still has a long way to go. Over 20pc of the Russian crop is spring wheat. 

Hard Red Winter and Canadian wheat prospects continue to look positive. According to the USDA, winter crop harvest is 54pc done vs the 5-year average of 46pc. On the flip side, the spring wheat crop is 38pc headed vs 46pc average. The spring crop is rated at 72pc good to excellent, well above the average of 62pc. 

Argentina northern wheat growing areas are set for higher-than-normal temps and lower than average rainfall for the next 10 days, lowering some private estimates. Brazil is a mixed bag, with the lower part of the belt too wet, northern part too dry. 

The vegetable oil rally continues. Palm oil, soybean oil and canola all were higher yesterday with Winnipeg canola leading the charge. The initial speculation that other vegoils would benefit from an escalation in tension between China and Indonesia fed into reports that early French harvest results have been disappointing. The Winnipeg Nov-24 canola futures contract touched C$600/t 3 sessions ago and finished at $651.10/t last night. 

Outside noise is loud – from Trump through to the ongoing wars across the globe are having their influence in Ag markets. You would be forgiven for assuming ship attacks in the Red Sea are a thing of the past, however, Yemen’s Houthi rebels had their busiest month – attacking the highest number of commercial ships in June.


The RBA maintained its long-term view that inflation would return to the RBA target by 2026. Minutes of the RBA June meeting revealed that the board discussed the possibility that the cash rate could increase amid strong domestic demand and a stronger global outlook. However, RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser also indicated the bank would not set a rate policy based on one inflation print. After the minutes were published the swaps market was pricing a 25pc chance of a 25 basis points increase in August.

WA current crop wheat values have been steady this week. There is little afresh export sales activity apart from the niche Japan market and the 23/24 WA wheat export program more than 90pc complete. Our current forecast is only for 800kt of wheat exports remaining across the J/A/S window, and lineups show ~425kt of that already pencilled in for July. 

New crop bids were higher for both wheat and canola yesterday in the west. APW1 MG wheat was bid $380-385/t FIS, CAN $810/t FIS and feed barley $330/t FIS. 

NSW current crop barley has found some renewed strength, the spread extending to around $15 over wheat, on a delivered basis. With values offered above $400/t again, import parity numbers via truck from northern Victoria are close to working again.  

Canola moved higher yesterday with NSW and Vic gaining more than $10 in current crop and further in new crop. 

Temperatures were unusually cold throughout SA and Vic overnight with the lower southeast of SA recording -2.7°C at 7:30 this morning. Parts of the Wimmera also saw temps as low as -2.4°C.

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