Daily Market Wire 3 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 3, 2024

Soybeans  and HRW wheat firmed 2 percent. The US dollar index eased and the Australian dollar firmed.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up US4.75c/bu to 650.5c/bu
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat up 11.25c/bu to 670.75c/bu
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat up 6.75c/bu to 726c/bu
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 up €0.75/t to €234.50/t;
  • Corn December 2024 up 6.75c/bu to 479.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 up 22.75c/bu to 1187.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$9.50/t to $652.10/t
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 up €7.25/t to €473/t
  • ASX May 2024 wheat up A$0.50/t to $345/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat down A$0.50/t to $363/t
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at $319/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley unchanged at $327/t
  • AUD dollar up 42 points to US$0.6565.


Overnight markets recovered in a fashion. Kansas dragged the wheat complex higher, but it was Black Sea activity that was the focus. It is always difficult to place too much weight on a war-driven rally given, over the last few years, they are good for about two sessions. An ammunition depot in Odessa was bombed and some Russian energy infrastructure was damaged. It is also weather season and Russia is falling behind. The deficits have been building and, while heat seems to abate for the next 12 days, rainfall deficit is ongoing. HRW wheat crops received rain, but more fell in the areas that are better and not enough in the areas that really need.  US and Canadian spring wheat areas also look good with better topsoil moisture. 

The tail end of the Brazilian safhina corn crop has been a stinker. Temperatures have been hot and rainfall below much below normal. Private forecasters are reducing crop estimates. CONAB currently is forecasting 110.9Mt for Brazilian early and late corn, USDA 124Mt. Reports from Argentina suggest stunting disease could take as much as 5Mt off its corn crop.


Forecast rainfall is holding for NNSW and Queensland but is forecast to miss the driest parts of the eastern cropping belt. 

There is a building sense of stock feeding pressure which is holding back the grower offer but also seeing the consumer getting a little nervous awaiting the next source of liquidity. 

Local markets were steady to slightly softer yesterday after a sharp rally over the past ten days. 

WA rain continues to fill the gaps for now. 

WA current crop wheat prices increased throughout the day yesterday, with a slight increase in exporter interest. APW1 in the Kwinana port zone is bid A$395/t FIS, H2 about $400/t FIS and H1 about $410/t FIS and values in other port zones running $5/t behind. 

There was no change to new season values. Canola (CAN) was bid $750/t FIS, and new season wheat bids remained about $390/t FIS Kwinana.


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