Markets

Daily Market Wire 3 October 2019

Lachstock Consulting, October 3, 2019
US markets on Wednesday settled lower.
  • Chicago wheat December contract down 9.75 cents per bushel to 489c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 5.75c to 405.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 3.5c to 529.5;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €0.75 to €174.5;
  • Corn December contract down 4.75c to 387.75c;
  • Soybeans November contract down 5.75c to 913.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$3.50 to $455.70;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €1 to €387;
  • Brent crude December contract down $1.20 per barrel to $57.69;
  • Dow Jones index down 494.42 points to 26078.62 points;
  • AUD strengthened to US$0.6709;
  • CAD weakened to $1.3228;
  • EUR strengthened to $1.0960;
In the wheat pits Chicago settled down -9.75 usc/bu closing at 489usc/bu, Kansas was -5.75 usc/bu lower to settle at 405.75usc/bu, while Minni softened -3.5 usc/bu to go out at 529.5usc/bu. Corn fell -4.75 usc/bu to go out at 387.75usc/bu while beans were down -5.75 usc/bu to settle at 913.75usc/bu WCE canola rallied 3.5 CAD/mt closing at 455.7CAD/mt with Matif canola finishing higher by 1 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones fell -343.79 points, crude was down -0.99 bbl the Aussie was 0.0003 higher to settle at 0.67058, the CAD rallied 0.0103 while the EUR gained 0.0028.

Markets and trade

Offshore markets softened as profit taking and the realization that the US market is substantially above competing origins added the pressure.

We have emerged from the mid-year doldrums – the biggest gap on the calendar between southern and northern hemisphere wheat harvest. Even row crops have awoken from a distinct lack of movement due to a period of perfect conditions. Now we have a raft of competing inputs that will exert their influence over price – the main drivers being the USDA Oct WASDE and the next round of China/US trade talks.

Daily impeachment talk, rebuttals, African swine fever (ASF), the RFS (renewable fuel standard) and plenty in the background as well, so it would be fair to assume we are in for increased volatility into year end.

Australia

The amazing thing during the last week of price action is the relative low volatility in basis. Chicago wheat has arguably less relevance to east coast of Australian grain given the drought locally and the fact SRW is priced well over competing origins, however over the past week basis has been relatively consistent. Odd coincidence? Domestic trade keeping things simple?

Crop estimates are ratcheting lower across the board. There are still areas that look really good however and just hearing that it can rain in Qld (albeit stormy) adds some hope.

 

 

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