Markets generally closed higher in overnight trading.
- Chicago December 2024 up US16.25c/bu to 615.25c/bu;
- Kansas Dec 2024 wheat up 21c/bu to 619.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat up 14.25c/bu to 649c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec 2024 up €6.25/t to €233.75/t;
- Corn Dec 2024 up 3.5c/bu to 432.5c/bu;
- Soybeans Nov 2024 down 1.25c/bu to 1056c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C$7.10/t to $617.90/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €0.50/t to €477.25/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 wheat up A$3.50/t to $331/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 barley down A2.50/t to $282.50/t;
- AUD dollar up 2 points to US$0.6885.
International
Reuters reports that Egypt’s GASC has struck one of its largest ever direct wheat deals for monthly supplies from November to April, totalling up to 3.12 million tonnes (Mt), presumably with Russia, with prices reportedly to be agreed upon on a monthly basis based on market prices.
Russia’s Oryol has declared a state of emergency due to drought and the resulting impact on winter crops. While Russia’s state weather forecast agency said conditions for winter crops in some key producing regions were “worse than usual” in October due to a lack of rain, specifically noting the central, southern, and north Caucasus and parts of the Volga regions. “A precipitation deficit will persist, and the conditions for the emergence and growth of winter crops in most areas will be worse than usual.”
SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat exports for the 2024-25 marketing year at 47.6Mt, down from their previous estimate of 48.1Mt, reflecting a small decrease in their production estimate and an increase in domestic feed demand.
European Commission data shows that for the week ending September 29, cumulative all-wheat exports are at 6.4Mt, down 25 percent compared to the same period last year. Barley exports at 2.2Mt are down 27pc, while canola imports are up 13pc at 1.2Mt.
The European Commission has proposed to delay the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) to 30 December 2025 for large companies and 30 June 2026 for small enterprises and has invited the European Parliament and the Council to adopt this proposal by the end of the year
StoneX has revised its 2024-25 US corn production forecast up by 2.4Mt, to 386.7Mt (385.7Mt Sept WASDE) and soybean production was revised up 1Mt, to 125.5Mt (124.8Mt).
Crop consultant Dr Michael Cordonnier has trimmed his US soybean yield by another 0.5 bu. to 51.5 bu. per acre, noting continued dryness in the central and western Corn Belt and potential for crop damage due to Hurricane Helene. He kept his corn yield at 182.5 bu. He maintains his neutral to lower bias for soybeans and has neutral bias towards corn.
Australia
It was a good day for all commodities in Western Australia yesterday, with canola bids increasing by around A$10/t to be bid $767/t FIS, wheat was up $5/t to be bid $360/t, and barley was up $3/t with bids around $312/t FIS
The east of the Australia also saw canola bids improve by around $10/t to be bid $734/t, wheat was steady at around $350/t and barley was bid $305/t.
There were some decent isolated falls through WA’s south-west and western parts of the Upper and Lower Great Southern yesterday, with 5-25mm recorded.
Australian Crop Forecasters has reportedly cut its 2024-25 wheat production forecast by 1.7mmt to 30 Mt, reflecting the impact of dry weather, coupled with widespread frost damage in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.
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