Weather: The past week brought little to no rainfall across northern Vic and NSW, with dryness beginning to stress crops and trim yield potential. Looking ahead, forecasts show limited relief with only light, patchy falls expected, suggesting moisture stress will persist and yield prospects to edge lower..

Markets: CBOT grains finished higher overnight with corn and soybeans reversing early losses to close firmer on renewed U.S.–China trade headlines and talk of farmer support. Wheat also found strength, bouncing from fresh contract lows as Black Sea tensions added risk premium despite otherwise heavy fundamentals.

Australian Day Ahead: Cereals are likely to open steady to slightly higher today, with wheat still capped by heavy global supply and slow export pace. Barley similar but forward Chinese enquiry remains supportive. GM Canola may track a touch firmer in sympathy with Winnipeg. Old crop delivered markets firmer as consumers try to get old crop slots covered.

Offshore

Wheat

Futures bounced off fresh contract lows but remain heavy, pressured by shutdown/report hangover and larger U.S. stocks/production.

Late support came from corn/soy rally and rising Black Sea risks after Russian strikes on Ukraine.

EU soft-wheat exports are running at their slowest pace in more than 10 years despite abundant supply.

Canada non-durum exports hit a record 3.15mmt through week 8, showing strong early-season pace.

USDA pegged U.S. all-wheat production at 1.99bn bu, above pre-report expectations.

Canada durum crop quality looks adequate across export grades; USDA’s 86m bu (+8% y/y).

Other grains and oilseeds

Corn December futures +1.1% to 4.21½, recovering with soybeans after early pressure from shutdown and larger carryout.

Analysts say U.S. corn yields need to fall 7–10 bu/acre to cut ending stocks below 2bn bu.

Soybeans November +0.9% to 10.22½, reversing higher on Trump’s Xi meeting post and talk of farmer support.

Analysts warn USDA export forecasts look optimistic without Chinese buying, with Brazil/Argentina already covering demand.

Canada barley crop estimated ~8.7m t with ~2.3m t malt-quality; U.S. barley yields a record but production still −3% y/y.

Macro/markets

U.S. government shutdown entered day two, halting USDA weekly exports and likely delaying October WASDE.

Non-farm payrolls may also be delayed as BLS suspends operations; risk appetite remains cautious.

U.S. equities mixed: S&P +0.1%, Dow +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.4%; Europe split with Euro Stoxx +1.2%, FTSE −0.2%.

UST 10yr yield eased to 4.085%; AUD/USD slipped under 0.66 on firmer USD.

Commodities weaker: WTI crude −2.1% to $60.5/bbl on higher OPEC output; gold −0.9% to $3,846.7/oz.

Euro area unemployment edged up to 6.3% in August, still near record lows; Italy +0.1ppt, Spain −0.1ppt.

Australia