US markets eased overnight. The Eastern Australian wheat contract firmed 2 percent. Rapeseed and canola firmed a little.
- Chicago December 2024 down US11.75c/bu to 603.5c/bu;
- Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 7.75c/bu to 611.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 2.75c/bu to 646.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €1.50/t to €232.25/t;
- Corn Dec 2024 down 4.25c/bu to 428.25c/bu;
- Soybeans Nov 2024 down 10c/bu to 1046c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C$4.10/t to $622/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €3.75/t to €481/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 wheat up A$7.50/t to $338.50/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 barley up A1.50/t to $284/t;
- AUD dollar down 45 points to US$0.6840.
International
Wheat markets took a breath after a decent week. “Opaque” is the best word to describe the wheat market, at the moment with ups and downs all over the shop. News that Egypt has struck a deal with Russia to supply wheat was undone by the subsequent announcement that they will be mixing corn and sorghum flour with wheat to reduce their reliance and price. Turkiye’s export ban is due to expire this month, and is yet to be reinstated – talk ranges from it happening soon to not at all. The US sold 447,000t of wheat this week, a decent rebound in light of the higher board price. Saudi Arabia is shopping, looking for 300,000t of wheat.
US President Joe Biden urged US port employers to restart negotiations with striking dock workers, cautioning that the ongoing strike along the east coast and Gulf could worsen the economic impact of Hurricane Helene. He criticised the delay in discussions and emphasised the need for a quick resolution to prevent further disruptions. At least 45 container vessels that have been unable to unload had anchored up outside the strike-hit east coast and Gulf coast ports by Wednesday, up from just three before the strike began on Sunday, according to Everstream Analytics.
Russian dryness continues, with much conjecture over the eventual impact to the upcoming winter crop. It’s worth remembering that Russia is a big country, and the link between pre-dormancy conditions and final yield is tenuous at best. The current pace of Russian exports would suggest there a food-security issue is not pending.
Indian domestic wheat values continue to rally, trading just over US$360/t. This now eclipses the levels seen back in 2016 when they imported 6 million tonnes. On the flipside, India reduced the export tariff on rice, suggesting they have plenty. India’s monsoon is coming to a close with a wetter-than-normal finish.
Australia
In the west, canola remained relatively unchanged through the day’s trade. Cereals saw an uptick in prices for both old and new crop, A$2-$15/t depending on grade, with AGP pricing remaining unchanged.
In the east, prices were relatively unchanged with localised moves by company, but top bids on cereals and canola remained steady for current and new crop. We saw a jump in prices for chickpeas of $70/t plus, and $20-$30/t plus for lentils in Victoria.
Most growers in Western Australia, Queensland and northern New South Wales, have had 15-50mm this week. In south-eastern Australia, and South Australia especially, the falls continue to drip feed through with 5-10mm for most.
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