Markets

Daily Market Wire 6 March 2024

Lachstock Consulting, March 6, 2024

Wheat stepped about 2 percent lower. Oilseeds were mixed.

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat down US13c/bu to 551c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat down 11c/bu to 580.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat down 4c/bu to 655.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 down €3/t to €190.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 3.75c/bu to 426.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 6c/bu to 1149c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024  down C$0.70/t to $595.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €5/t to €422.25/t;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat unchanged at A$321.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$1.50/t to $324.50/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$304.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 6 points to US$0.6503.

International

China will protect farmland with the strictest possible controls in order to achieve the country’s goal of food security, the state planner said in a report released at the annual National People’s Congress. China will expand its budget to stockpile grains and edible oils this year and increase support and policies to boost agricultural production, aimed to improve food security. China will spend 140.63 billion yuan ($19.54 billion) on stockpiling grains, edible oils and “other materials” this year, up 8pc from last year. China also allocated 54.5 billion yuan ($7.57 billion) in subsidies for agricultural insurance premiums, up 19pc from last year. The finance ministry will also increase the minimum purchase price of wheat and expand insurance coverage for rice, wheat and corn. 

Ukraine exported more than 2.5Mt wheat in February, a record for February and the largest monthly export figure since October 2021. The leading importers were Spain (28pc), Egypt (11pc) and Pakistan (10pc). Total wheat exports for eight months of the current season reached 11.8Mt (+4pc). 

South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier maintained his neutral/lower bias for Brazil but kept his production estimates at 145Mt for soybeans and 112Mt for corn. Dr Cordonnier kept his Argentine crop estimates at 50Mt for soybeans and 54Mt for corn, with a neutral bias toward both.  

Brazil’s Abiove cut its 2023-24 soybean production outlook by 2.3Mt, to 153.8Mt (149.4Mt Conab), with the 2024 (Jan/Dec) export forecast trimmed by 0.3Mt, to 97.8Mt (101.9Mt previous year). Domestic processing estimate was maintained at 54.5Mt (52.2Mt). Soymeal output remained unchanged at 41.7Mt (40.7Mt), with exports also steady at 21.6Mt (22.6Mt).  

Brazil’s Conab reports that as at 3 Mar, 2023-24 soybean harvest was 47pc complete (44pc previous year). Fast progress was noted in Mato Grosso, where yields were reported to be highly variable. Favourable rainfall aided late-sown crops in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, with the latter experiencing a high incidence of disease. Primary (full-season) maize harvest was 29pc complete (23pc). Dry conditions aided harvest in Minas Gerais, but with operations in Rio Grande do Sul interrupted by rains. Secondary (safrinha) sowings were 74pc finished (64pc). In Mato Grosso, accelerated sowing progress compared to the previous season partly reflected reduced planting intentions, while rainfall across the state supported crop development. 

President Putin has said that Russia may export 65Mt grain in 2023-24 and that Russia is ready to work with BRICS partners on a proposal to create exchange indicators for grain.  

China reportedly purchased at least 65kt (some estimates up to 190kt) of feed maize from Ukraine, at US$236/t c&f, for April loading. 

Turkey’s state grain board has issued an international tender (11 Mar) for the sale and export of 150,000 tonnes of durum wheat, for Mar/Apr loading.

Australia

Eastern markets were a touch softer again yesterday. ASX dropped a further $1.50/t to $324/t for the May contract. Although the dry stint through the eastern states continues, and is welcome for some, attention has turned towards WA where some decent falls have been received this week with more on the way. The 8-day forecast continues to build. A further widespread 15-100mm now expected, with the heavier totals expected in the east and if realised will provide a real change in sentiment after the prolonged hot and dry conditions.

Line ups data shows that February ended the month with 3Mt total grain on the stem. There is currently 3.51Mt on the stem for March, including 2.25Mt wheat, 691kt barley, 561kt canola and 12.9kt sorghum. Port congestion increased this week due to increased vessel activity, with the overall maximum wait time less than 19 days. There are currently 16 vessels anchored and 12 loading at Australian grain ports.

 

Grain Central: Get our free news straight to your inbox – Click here

HAVE YOUR SAY

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Your comment will not appear until it has been moderated.
Contributions that contravene our Comments Policy will not be published.

Comments

Get Grain Central's news headlines emailed to you -
FREE!