Market rallies continued.
- Chicago December 2024 wheat up US24.75c/bu to 693.25c/bu
- Kansas December 2024 wheat up 23c/bu to 706c/bu
- Minneapolis December 2024 wheat up 11.5c/bu to 742.75c/bu
- MATIF wheat December 2024 up €9.50/t to €250.50/t;
- Corn December 2024 up 5.75c/bu to 488.5c/bu;
- Soybeans November 2024 up 18.75c/bu to 1219.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$14.60/t to $675.40/t
- MATIF rapeseed November 2024 up €12.25/t to €488.50/t
- ASX May 2024 wheat up A$2/t to $352/t;
- ASX January 2025 wheat up A$4/t to $370/t
- ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at $322.50/t;
- ASX January 2025 barley unchanged at $330.50/t
- AUD dollar up 15 points to US$0.6625.
International
After very cold conditions raised concerns of freeze damage over the weekend there are more concerns for the Russian wheat crop with further frost warnings for later this week. On the back of prolonged dry conditions, a widespread frost is making the market nervous about the size of the Russian crop.
According to the Ukraine Ag Ministry, total grain exports as of 9 May had reached almost 42Mt, close to the 42.6Mt exported by the same time last year. The totals include 16Mt wheat, 23.3Mt corn and 2.2Mt barley.
The USDA’s FAS attaché in Kazakhstan has forecast 2024-25 wheat production to increase by 3.69Mt to 15.8Mt, reflecting better spring moisture which will support crop growth through the summer.
The USDA’s Crop Progress report shows that after a strong early start, corn planting fell behind this week due to wet weather with 36pc complete, compared to 42pc last year and the average of 39pc. Soybean planting was 25pc complete, compared to 30pc last year but better than the average of 21pc. Winter wheat rated good/excellent gained a point this week at 50pc, well ahead of last year’s 29pc.
Australia
The firmer tone continues in local markets as we follow the offshore moves higher but locally consumers are looking for the next offer. The tail of north vs south in the east is becoming more of an issue with some parts of the north now actually too wet and a lack of a decent break for many in the southern cropping zones starting to play into market sentiment. It will be interesting to see what the local market does today after an eventful night in futures markets.
The RBA is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at today’s meeting at 4.35pc. After initial predictions of several rate cuts in 2024, stronger than expected Q1 inflation and concerns over upcoming impacts of wage rises, tax cuts and major government spending mean that a rate cut is now not likely in the short term.
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