Markets

Daily Market Wire 8 January 2024

Lachstock Consulting, January 8, 2024

Friday trading saw canola/rapeseed values ease 2pc, while wheat firmed.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up 2.5c/bu to US616c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 2.25c/bu to 628c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 0.75c/bu to 712c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €0.50/t to €220.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn March 2024 down 5.75c/bu to 473.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 12.25c/bu to 1264.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$12.60/t to C$626.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €8/t to €424.25/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$1.50/t to $373/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley unchanged at A$307.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 7 points to US$0.6714.

International

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that for the week ending January 3, maize plantings were 78 percent complete  vs 70pc at this time last year, with conditions rated 98pc fair to excellent. Soybean sowing is 86pc complete (94pc last year), with conditions at 98pc fair to excellent. Fieldwork in the past week was mostly confined to northern areas, with second crop sowing done on 73pc of intended area

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Brazil has revised down the 2023-24 soybean production forecast to 158.5 million tonnes (Mt), a 2 percent decrease from the October forecast of 162Mt, which is 1Mt above the official USDA estimate. In commentary, the FAS Brazil post said the 3.5Mt reduction reflects worse-than-expected weather in major producing states due to the El Niño across South America. Nonetheless, production could still surpass the previous season’s record 158Mt.

The USDA notes that as at December 31, 2024-25 winter wheat condition in Kansas was rated 43pc good to excellent (19pc previous year), Colorado 61pc (50pc), Oklahoma 67pc (38pc), Illinois at 55pc (68pc), Montana 43pc (22pc), Nebraska 48pc (18pc), North Dakota at 50pc (48pc) and South Dakota at 54pc (16pc).

Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association reportedly purchased 82,975t of milling wheat from the US, including 46,625t of DNS (minimum 14.5pc protein) at $329.80-$331.06 fob, 27,025t of HRW (12.5pc) at $285.86-$296.89 fob and 9325t of soft white wheat (8.5-10pc) at $250.66-$263.08/t fob, for Feb-Mar shipment.

Jordan’s state grain buyer reportedly purchased 120,000t of milling wheat from optional origins at $276.75/t c&f for Mar shipment.

Australia

Local markets ended last week relatively steady, with Downs wheat and barley at A$420/t for January plus carry, Melbourne ASW wheat at $375/t and barley at $345/t. All eyes are on the rain gauges as the market tries to determine the impact of the heavy totals over the weekend adding to the already high volume of rain received since the start of December

The rain just keeps on coming, with areas yet to harvest in Victoria, southern New South Wales, and South Australia’s South East seeing some big totals over the weekend.

 

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