Markets

Daily Market Wire 8 October 2024

Lachstock Consulting October 8, 2024

Oil rallied more than 3 percent. All grains and oilseeds markets moved less than one percent overnight. Note that Victoria, WA, NT and Tasmania were the only parts of Australia without a gazetted public holiday on Monday.

  • Chicago December 2024 up US2.75c/bu to 592.5c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat up 5.25c/bu to 603.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat up 5.75c/bu to 644.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €0.25/t to €228.50/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 up 1.25c/bu to 426c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 down 3.75c/bu to 1034c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C$2.60/t to $627.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €3.75/t to €490.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat settlement price Friday 4 October was down A$3/t to $335.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley settlement price Friday 4 October was unchanged at A$284/t;
  • AUD dollar down 43 points to US$0.6757.

International

Oil prices have surged as Israel continues to strike Lebanon and concerns grow that Israel may decide to target Iranian oil facilities in retaliation to a Iran’s missile strike last week. 

Reuters reports that a Russian missile hit a Palau-flagged vessel in Ukraine’s southern port of Odesa yesterday, killing one Ukrainian national and injuring 5 foreign nationals. The strike was the second on a ship in as many days in southern Ukraine, as a Russian missile had damaged a vessel loaded with corn in the port of Pivdennyi on Sunday. 

The Turkish Flour Industrialists Federation has said that the ban on wheat imports will be lifted from 15 October, although 85pc of imported volume must be bought from stocks held by the Turkish Trade Board, with the remaining 15pc to be sourced from overseas. Trade Board wheat stocks are reportedly estimated at 8Mt. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports that as at 4 Oct, 2024-25 grains and oilseeds harvest has yielded 56.6Mt, including wheat at 22.3Mt, barley at 5.5Mt and rapeseed at 3.5Mt. Cumulative exports as at 7 October estimated at 11.2Mt (+54pc), including wheat at 6.5Mt (+80pc), maize at 3Mt (+4pc) and barley at 1.4Mt (+127pc). 

The Alberta Crop report, for the week ending 1 October notes that rain and cold temps slowed harvest progress across the province and while beneficial for the restoration of soil moisture there are concerns about the impact grain quality. Spring wheat harvest was 92pc complete (95pc previous year), barley at 92pc (96pc) and canola at 71pc (75pc). In Saskatchewan warm and dry conditions aided harvest, now estimated to be 91pc complete (95pc year ago). Due to mixed weather conditions during the season, yields are variable across the province. 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange noted that for the week ending 2 Oct, 2024-25 maize plantings were 14pc complete (14pc previous year), with fieldwork mostly concentrated in Entre Ríos, eastern Santa Fe and central Buenos Aires. Low soil moisture levels continued to hinder progress in some key growing regions. Wheat conditions rated at 67pc good/excellent (68pc). Harvest is underway in the northwest, with yields seen below average. Barley crop conditions rated at 80pc normal/good. 

FranceAgriMer reported that as at 30 Sep, 2024-25 maize harvest was 2pc complete (23pc previous year, 26pc 5-year avg), with conditions rated 79pc good/excellent (79pc, 83pc). 2025-26 common wheat sowing estimated at 1pc complete (2pc, 2pc) and winter barley at 3pc (4pc, 5pc). 

Saudi Arabia bought 307kt of hard milling wheat for Dec/Jan arrival at an average price of US$265.78/t C&F. 

US private exporters reported sales of 116kt of soybeans to China and 173kt to unknown destinations and 198kt of corn to unknown destinations and 155kt to Mexico and all during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

Local markets were quiet with the Public Holiday Monday. In Victoria canola values started the week being bid around A$742/t with wheat around $350/t and barley $302/t. Delivered Darling Downs markets are bid around $337/t for wheat and $306/t for barley. 

The current 8-day rainfall forecast is showing 15-50mm for cropping regions in central/northern NSW and southern Qld which will be a pain for those already harvesting or just about to start, with the bulk of the rain expected from this weekend. The 10-25mm tipped for southern NSW will be beneficial. After another mostly dry week there is not much on the radar for VIC, SA and WA.

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