Markets

Daily Market Wire 1 April 2022

Lachstock Consulting, April 1, 2022

Wheat, soybeans and corn were all down sharply.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US21.25cents per bushel to 1006c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 14.75c/bu to 1029.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May up 21.5c/bu to 1079.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May contract up €7/t to €369.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract up $3.50/t to $349/t;
  • Corn May contract up 10.75c/bu to 748.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May contract down 45.75c/bu to 1618.25c/bu;
  • Soybean oil down 3pc;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$1.60 /t to $962.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €0.75/t to €757.25/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract up A$10.50/t to $398/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $9/t to $400/t;
  • Brent crude was down 5pc;
  • AUD dollar down to US$0.748.

International

The focus of the market shifted away a bit from Ukraine to the USDA March Quarterly Stocks Planting Intentions reports. Whilst stocks were broadly inline with market expectations, acreage estimates were the market mover with corn acres 2.5m below trade expectations, soybean acres 2.3m above expectations, and wheat acres slightly below expectations. From a record perspective, it’s a record bean acreage and the third time soy acres are have outstripped corn, but we haven’t added significant acres to the total pie despite the multi year commodity prices. Price action of the back of the report was volatile with Dec corn touching limit up in the session before settling off the highs

From here, the market will actively debate the substance of the numbers with particular regard to input prices and the relative value of beans vs corn to retain or swing acres over the next month

In other news, Russia has imposed a temporary export ban on sunflower seed & canola seed from this Friday through till the end of August. It also imposed export restrictions of sunflower oil from mid Apr till end August in order to curb domestic food price inflation.

Australia

Local markets continue to trot along, with wheat values rounding out the week relatively unchanged.  Barley offers continue to firm through Victoria and South Australia, while the bid side of the market holds. Canola values were a touch stronger in the current crop again yesterday, while new-crop values push way to $1000/t again, with the SA non-GM track market hitting $1005/t bid, and Victoria delivered at $1000/t.

Weather maps continue to show positive outlooks for Western and eastern Australia. The eight-day forecast shows some scattered shows through Victoria, and more heavy rain for northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. SA growers are the ones missing out at the moment, with longer-term models forecasting some rain around the Easter weekend.

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