Daily Market Wire 1 December 2020

Lachstock Consulting, December 1, 2020

Futures markets fell across the board.

  • Chicago wheat March contract down US21cents/bushel to 585c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 18.25c/bu to 547c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract down 17c/bu to 553c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €3/t to €207;
  • Corn March contract down 7.75c/bu to 426c/bu;
  • Soybeans January contract down 23.25c/bu to 1169.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola January contract down C$4.90/t to $578.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract down  €5.25 to €408.75;
  • Brent crude January down US$0.59 per barrel to $47.59;
  • Dow Jones index down 272 points to 29,639;
  • AUD weaker at $0.735;
  • CAD firmer to $1.297;
  • EUR weaker at $1.193.


  • Russia’s Ag Ministry is talking of potentially increasing the first half 2021 export quota by 2.5 million tonnes, most of which would be wheat.  The current 15Mt quota was not seen as a major constraining factor, but increase would help take off any potential late season pressure
  • In the light of the futures board price break today, Egypt’s GASC is tendering for wheat again.
  • Today is first notice day for wheat and corn December contracts. Fun fact that the oldest long is from mid-2019 for corn.
  • Flash sales by the USDA had two sets of unknown sales – 140,000t and 204,000t.  Many are assuming these are previously rumoured Chinese demand
  • ABARES pegged Australia’s wheat crop at 31.1Mt, barley 11.9Mt, and canola 3.7Mt
  • Weekly US inspections had 503,000t of wheat, 2.0Mt of beans, and 900,000t of corn – all about as expected.  Milo/sorghum had four boats to China
  • South American rains remain on the maps, but still well below “average” for central Brazilian soybean areas.  The latest models show some 30pc below average for the states of Goiás and (the northern part of) Mato Grosso across the two week outlooks.
  • Black Sea weather maps also remain heavily on the dry side.  Moderate temperatures have been helping, but with hard frosts forecast for the Volga and Central Russia winter kill worries are also coming back into play for already-stressed crops.


  • The harvest continues to move along rapidly though we saw some harvest fire ban days put in place over the weekend. But fire bans, along with some showers of rain, didn’t stop growers for long
  • Cash boards were relatively unchanged on wheat through the northern part of Australia where harvest is albeit finished,  while the southern cash bids were a fraction softer by $1-2t. Barley was also a fraction softer while canola bids showed some strength being up again $3-4/t.
  • We continue to see small premiums in the wheat market for deferred contract bids versus the off-the-header harvest bids.


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