International

US Winter Wheat condition ratings improved slightly in Kansas, with 21pc of the crop in good-to-excellent condition as of 29 Jan, up from 19pc at the end of December (30pc previous year). Ratings also improved in Nebraska at 22pc (18pc Dec, 36pc previous year) and South Dakota at 22pc (16pc Dec, 31pc previous year). However, in Oklahoma, 17pc of the state’s wheat was rated good-to-excellent, down from 38pc at the end of December (16pc last year). Ratings declined in Colorado and Montana. 69pc of the Illinois crop was good-to-excellent, up from 68pc a month ago. The USDA reported 59pc of US winter wheat is produced in an area currently experiencing drought, down from 69pc a month ago.

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported the number ships departing daily had fallen from 2.7 to 2.5, the lowest since the grain corridor started, citing delays by Russian inspectors as the reason. Exports totalled about 607,771t in the week to 29 Jan, down from 893,874t the week before. The grain initiative had 48 days to run under its current agreement, finishing on 19 March. 

SovEcon reported Russian on-farm wheat stocks were estimated to be 22.1Mt as of January 1, 2023. This was 42pc higher than the average for the past five years. The high stocks were expected to support active exports during the second half of 2022-23, placing downward pressure on global prices. First half of 2022-23 exports were lower than the four-year average, due to a strong ruble, high freight rates, and the impact of export taxes. Given the high levels of wheat stocks and favourable prices for exporters, SovEcon expected record-high export pace in the coming months. Exports in the first half of 2023 were forecast to reach 21.3Mt, compared to 10.9Mt during the same period last year. 

The IMF has upgraded its economic growth projections for 2023 and 2024 in its World Economic Outlook report, citing resilient consumers and the reopening of China’s economy as some of the reasons for a more optimistic outlook. Despite the improved outlook, global growth remained weak by historical standards and the war in Ukraine continued to weigh on activity and uncertainty. The report also cautioned the global economy still faced considerable risks, warning “severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate and tighter global financing costs could worsen debt distress.”

Egypt’s GASC is seeking 60,000t of wheat from any origin in a Feb. 2 tender with shipment for Feb-March. The purchase will be within the framework of the Food Security and Resilience Support Program, funded by the World Bank.

Jordan reportedly purchased 60,000t of wheat at $336.50/t in a tender that closed on Tuesday.

Australia