Markets

Daily Market Wire 1 July 2022

Lachstock Consulting, July 1, 2022

All markets weakened overnight. Chicago wheat and corn fell the most at over 5pc, followed by Kansas wheat at 4pc.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US46 cents per bushel to 884c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 39.50c/bu to 951.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 38.50c/bu to 990c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €8.25/t to €350.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat September contract down $2.75/t to $376.25/t;
  • Corn September contract down 35.25c/bu to 628.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 20.25c/bu to 1458c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$13.60/t to $878.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €7/t to €694.75/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract down $2/t to A$418/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $2/t to $439/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.69.

International

June 30 reports never fail to provide volatility. An acreage and stocks report in the middle of a growing season will always be a volatile one. The headline summary: stocks report pretty neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat. Area report neutral for corn and wheat and a little bullish for beans. Ahead of the report’s release, market analysts did not expect major changes to corn, and soybean planted acres, despite high corn prices. The report indicates that farmers made small shifts to plant a few more acres of corn and cotton and pulled acres from soybeans and wheat, likely due to weather-related delays. The combined acreage total for corn and soybeans in 2022 is 178.2 million acres, which is lower than 2021’s 180.6-million-acre record. USDA estimates 15.8 million acres of soybeans are still left to be planted in 2022. This is up nearly 61pc compared to this time in 2021 when 9.8 million acres of soybeans were still left to be planted.

Beans reacted positively to the report but couldn’t fight the overall weakness in corn and wheat, eventually being dragged lower into the close. Fair to say there are a few scratching heads today given the relentless clean out, despite most of the numbers being extremely close to the pre-report guess. Maybe it’s simply weather. The row crop belt is set to get a much-needed drink, mainly in the 6–10-day window. Overnight runs reduced some of the more extreme precipitation forecasts and added in a little more heat. It feels to me that this event is becoming pretty binary. Probably could say that every year but, given poor rainfall through June, this event could make or break the corn and bean outlook.

Corn export sales have really lagged. Once again, the market seems to be waiting for China to come and lift a chunk. Interestingly, their domestic hog contracts are near contract highs which should be encouraging an import margin. Additionally, Argentina ports are dealing with a truck strike that has pretty much stopped exports for the moment.

A first cargo ship has left the Russian-occupied Ukrainian port of Berdyansk, a local official said on Thursday, after Russia said the port had been de-mined and was ready to resume grain shipments. “After a stoppage of several months the first cargo ship has left the Berdyansk port,” Yevgeny Balitsky, a Russian-installed official in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, wrote on the Telegram messaging service. Russia’s TASS and RIA news agencies cited Balitsky as saying the first cargo ship to leave Berdyansk was carrying 7000t of grain to “friendly countries”. But an edited Telegram post by Balitsky seen by Reuters did not say what cargo the ship was carrying.

Top world wheat buyer Egypt purchased 26,000t of US soft red winter wheat in the week ended June 23, USDA data showed. That’s the first cargo of US variety sold to Egypt since 2019. Egypt in years previous favoured the variety, before it began diversifying imports largely with shipments out of the Black Sea. The announcement comes after Egypt’s wheat-buying agency made its biggest purchases in at least a decade amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that snarled grain shipments.

Australia

As we approach the end of the week and overcome the EOFY madness, markets yet again drifted a touch lower on new crop wheat and barley while canola was up across the boards. Basis came into $50-55/t in Western Australia for new crop wheat. Old crop markets found a bid late in the day over in the West with Clear Grain Exchange trading 20,500t for the day with most of the liquidity being ASW1 and ANW1 in Kwinana zone.

Grower selling interest for old crop increased this week as we came to the end of the financial year. New crop selling interest has also increased as growers get the last of winter crops planted before the rain and the prospect of a third bumper crop is becoming clearer. However, most consumers are already covered for July-September, and are therefore providing little competition for exporters

Most of Central Queensland and south-east Queensland are forecast to receive 15-50mm of rain over the next four days. North-east and central New South Wales are set for similar totals. Victoria, South Australia, and WA are looking at a dry four days with light showers developing next week. Although the forecast rainfall will bring winter sowing opportunities to a close, it will be beneficial for emergence and establishment of crops already in the ground.

 

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