Markets

Daily Market Wire 1 June 2022

Lachstock Consulting, June 1, 2022

US wheat markets lost between 4pc and 7pc overnight.

  • Chicago wheat July contract down US70 cents per bushel to 1087.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 69.75c/bu to 1165.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July down 57.25c/bu to 1257.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €14.50/t to €392.25/t;
  •  Black Sea wheat July contract down $9/t to $400.25/t;
  •  Corn July contract down 23.75c/bu to 753.5c/bu;
  •  Soybeans July contract down 49c/bu to 1683.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$0.10/t at $1073.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €2.50/t to €805.75/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract unchanged at $466.30/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $5/t to $475/t;
  • AUD dollar eased to US$0.717.

International

Humanitarian corridors are back on… or are they? More talk and liquidation around ideas that Putin will allow exports from the Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Minister will meet with Turkey on 8 June to discuss the potential sea corridor to funnel out Ukrainian grain. This probably raises more questions than answers. Whom do they pay? Who gets the cash? Will this be Ukrainian grain seized by Russia with a view to get funds back to Russia? Interesting that Putin has been pretty consistent – he is happy to open up the humanitarian corridor as long as sanctions are lifted. Then, while the market was selling off on ideas the corridor could become a reality, the EU announced they will place a ban on some more Russian energy, cutting 90pc of oil imports from Russia – ie more sanctions. Additionally, Russia is about to turn off the gas to Germany. The disconnect between war updates, ie the city of Severodonetsk which is all but overrun, and a market view that Russia will allow exports of Ukrainian grain seem as wide as ever.

EU diplomats have said that the agreement to cut oil imports would clear the way for other elements of a sixth package of EU sanctions on Russia to take effect, including cutting Russia’s biggest bank, Sberbank, from the SWIFT messaging system.

US corn planting made some impressive progress this week with 86pc planted vs 87pc average. Winter wheat conditions are still poor with only a 1pc improvement from last week with 29pc of the crop in good-to-excellent condition.

Weather is actually pretty good. Yes there are areas that are problematic, but EU is improving and nothing is really impacting the US row crops at the moment. The Russian growing season continues to look amazing – adding to the ideas that they will easily supply 40Mt.

Australia

Market was relatively unchanged yesterday on current crop while new crop bids were back $10/t across the boards for wheat, barley was a fraction softer and canola also pulled back $10-20/t on new and old crop.

“Hopes on a Hat-trick” – Rabobank released its winter crop outlook yesterday with total area planted in Australia expected to reach a record 23.83m ha, exceeding last year’s record by 1pc. The report notes that they expect this to include a record canola area of 3.6 million hectares, up 21% YOY. Increased canola area will come at the expense of barley, given Chinese anti dumping tariffs remain in place, and pulses, which are still stored and unsold in large quantities in northern NSW and QLD

Queensland Senator Murray Watt has been appointed to the role of Minister for Agriculture in Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s new cabinet. Murray Watt was a solicitor before entering the Queensland public service where he worked as chief of staff to Premier Anna Bligh from 2002 to 2007. He entered Federal Politics when he was elected to the Senate for Queensland in 2016. He served as Shadow Minister for Northern Australia, Disaster and Emergency Management and Queensland Resources when in Opposition.

 

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