Markets

Daily Market Wire 1 March 2021

Lachstock Consulting, March 1, 2021

US wheat futures slid another 2-3 per cent, the US dollar rose 1pc and the Australian dollar fell almost three cents, after briefly breaking 80¢ the other day, to 77.1¢. Crude took a chop lower to close off two bucks at $61.5 WTI / $64.4 Brent and the DOW gave up 469 points.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down 15.5c/bu to 660.25;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 18.75c/bu to 633.75;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract down 11.25c/bu to 638.75;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €2/t to €229.50/t;
  • Corn May contract down 2.25c/bu to 547.5;
  • Soybeans May contract down 3.25c/bu to 1404.25;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$4/t to $739.20;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €3.25/t to €469.50;
  • US dollar index up 0.7 to 90.9
  • AUD weaker at $0.771;
  • CAD weaker at $1.272;
  • EUR weaker at $1.206;
  • ASX wheat May contract down $0.50/t to 301.50;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 contract up $0.50/t to 307.

International

Friday markets could not find anything to stop the sell off – month end rolls, new crop approaching without immediate production concerns and an overall overdone sentiment all weighing in.

Argentine two-week weather maps are turning towards dryness yet again, only a few scattered showers forecast across northern areas, reinvigorating some concerns about yield drag with the dry finish.

At the same time, there is still more moisture set across Brazilian soybean areas. Harvest has been pushing forward but still about half of normal, worries about quality and harvest loss remain, along with delays to Safrinha plantings.

US crop insurance prices were set for most areas of corn and beans, with the averaging window now complete. Corn was set at US$4.58/bu (vs 3.88 LY) and beans at $11.87/bu (vs $9.17).  The big question now for markets is how farmers will react to the higher prices and any moves between now and planting. Markets are confident of a large expansion of the corn/bean total pie, but ideas on splits remain wide ranging.  Spring wheat prices came in at $6.53/bu (vs $5.56 last year).

Warmer temperatures on the maps for the US southern Plains are bringing some expectations that wheat will start emerging from dormancy, raising questions about how much winter kill will be realised/confirmed.

Still no deliveries have been made on Chicago wheat or corn (no surprise) yet, though there were 1288 more issued for KC (almost all at Hutchinson, Kansas) on Friday.

Earlier rumours of African Swine Fever in the Western Cape of South Africa have been confirmed, with sales bans going into place there in an attempt to stop the spread.

The USDA’s next WASDE report is due out on Tuesday week.

Australia

Local markets pulled back slightly on Friday. Wheat disappeared later in the day. Global moves will apply pressure to opening values today.

The storm on the maps for WA to start this week has widened out with a solid 20-25+ mm forecast across the wheat belt. Totals from last week’s storms across the Darling Downs did disappoint for some parts of the eastern Downs, but were better south of the border.

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