Daily Market Wire 1 May 2023

Lachstock Consulting, May 1, 2023

Wheat and soybean price gains were mostly a little more than one percent in offshore trade on Friday.

  • Chicago wheat December 2023 contract up US4.5 cents per bushel to 662.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 2023 contract up 10.75c/bu to 777c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 2023 up 14.5c/bu to 814.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 unchanged at €240.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December 2023 down US$1.75/t to $286.75/t;
  • Corn July 2023 contract up 3.5c/bu to 585c/bu;
  • Soybeans July 2023 contract up 15.5c/bu to 1419.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract down C$5.20/t to $703.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2023 contract down €1.75/t to €438.25/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract down A$3/t to $382/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract down A$10/t to $320/t;
  • AUD dollar eased 18 points to US$0.6613


The European Commission said on Friday it had reached a deal “in principle” to allow the transit of Ukrainian grain to resume through Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis tweeted that the EU executive had reached “an agreement in principle” with the five countries “to address concerns of both farmers in neighbouring EU countries and Ukraine” saying that the deal included “safeguard measures” for wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed

EU governments also agreed on Friday to extend the suspension of duties and quotas on imports from Ukraine for another year to help its economy during the war with Russia.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that for the week ending April 26, Argentina’s soybean harvest was 28pc complete (17pc previous week, 33pc previous year), with conditions rated 35pc fair to excellent (36pc previous week, 70pc previous year). With numerous reports of poor yields and high levels of abandonment, there is further downward potential to the production forecast, currently at 22.5 million tonnes versus 43.3Mt in the previous year. Maize harvest was 18pc complete (15pc previous week, 25pc previous year), with conditions rated 48pc fair to excellent (47pc, 78pc). The best results have so far been seen in western parts of Buenos Aires and northern parts of La Pampa provinces, albeit with yields there still lower than average. Sorghum production is forecast at 3Mt (3.5Mt previous year), with reduced yields in northern areas tied to dry weather and reported pest infestations

FranceAgriMerreports that as at 24 April, 2023-24 common wheat crop was rated 94pc good to excellent versus 93pc in the previous week, and 91pc previous year, winter barley is at 91pc (91pc, 87pc) and spring barley at 94pc (95pc, 91pc). Maize sowing is 44pc complete (20pc, 56pc).

The European Commission has revised its common wheat production forecast down by 700,000t, to 130.2Mt versus 125.9Mt previous year. The barley production forecast was cut by 2Mt, to 52.2Mt (51.5Mt). The maize production forecast has dropped 600,000t to 64.4Mt (52.1Mt). Forecast rapeseed production has increased 400,000t to 20Mt (19.5Mt previous year).

The USDA reports that record winter snow melt in the upper Midwest is flooding into waterways and that the Upper Mississippi River above Lock 17 near New Boston, Illinois, will be closed to barge traffic for the next three weeks. Restricted barge traffic will slow grain movement down river and fertiliser movement up from the Gulf.

Yara Fertiliser has reportedly idled more than half of its European ammonia-production capacity due to a steep drop in fertiliser prices, and reported first-quarter earnings well below forecasts, as farmers delayed purchases hoping for even lower prices.

Palm oil posted its largest weekly decline in more than a month, pressured by Indonesia’s move to change its export policy and dwindling demand from major buyers.

Algeria’s OAIC reportedly purchased an unspecified volume of milling wheat at US$295-$296.50 c&f, May-July shipment.


Canola staggered into the weekend after being beaten up by offshore futures again. Wheat was mostly unchanged at the end of the week, while sorghum felt some pressure late in the week as the tail end of harvest approaches

Rainfall totals over the weekend were mixed, with south-east New South Wales and eastern Victoria picking up the highest totals. Queensland totals were hit and miss, with some getting up to 30mm and others missing out, with the south-west picking up the better falls. Parts of South Australia picked up 10mm in the past 24 hours, while Western Australia had a dry weekend.


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