Markets

Daily Market Wire 1 November 2019

Lachstock Consulting, November 1, 2019

Markets mostly lower and US dollar was firmer.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down 1 cents per bushel to 508.25c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 1.5c to 419.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 0.5c to 524c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €1 to €178;
  • Corn December contract down 0.75c to 390c;
  • Soybeans January contract up 1.75c to 932.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola January contract down C$2.20 to $457.40
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract down €1.50 to €381;
  • Brent crude December contract down $0.38 to $60.23;
  • Dow Jones index down 140.46 points to 27046.23 points;
  • AUD weakened to US$0.6888;
  • CAD weakened to $1.3169;
  • EUR weakened to $1.1152;

Underlying politics a hard slog

Markets digested another barrage of political cold porridge.

The House formally approved the resolution to proceed with the impeachment inquiry.

Not surprisingly the vote was largely along party lines with just two Democrats crossing the floor – but the 232-196 vote will keep the circus moving along.

The inquiry now has the charter to explore the allegations from various whistle-blowers in a public forum.

Late night hosts can sack 90pc of their writers as they now have free content for months.

This is by no means a win for either party with substantial risk to the 2020 election campaign on both sides.

The best line I have read on this today is, amazingly from CNN – “Remember that, at its root, impeachment is a political, not a legal process.”

Wheat end-of-month positioning

Wheat finished within arm’s reach of unchanged overnight with little new fundamental input and month end positioning.

Corn had more of the same – the painfully slow harvest is not enticing the grower to sell.

Remember, the Nov USDA report is not that far away so cold and snowy conditions may have some impact on the published numbers.

What feels like a “Hail Mary” for the bulls – the Nov report is really the last roll of the dice and without a yield shift the market will be looking for a fresh reason to buy current levels.

Beans remain linked to China/US trade sentiment – Bloomberg posted an article which indicated China is frustrated dealing with Trump and a long-term deal will be difficult.

Australia

Locally we saw scattered showers in Western Australia to slow harvest up for some areas with reports that half a million tonnes has been received into the CBH system.

A rain event is still set for large part of NSW and Victoria leading into the weekend.

Expect a wet track for the AAMI Victoria Derby. In parts of western Victoria growers will be very happy to receive a finishing rain of 10-15mm and the lower South East of SA is expected to also receive upwards to 10mm.

Markets remained relatively unchanged through Victoria, strong pull back from barley buyers over in WA as harvest ramps up and the grower sells.

Canola has found some ground over the week in Port Kembla zone being up $6-7/t while the Geelong Melbourne market has remained flat.

 

 

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