Markets

Daily Market Wire 1 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting, November 1, 2022

US and Australian wheat markets gapped 4-6pc firmer on Monday.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US53 cents per bushel to 882.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 53.75c/bu at 978.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 36.25c/bu to 981.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €14.75/t to €352.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up US$7.25/t to $324.75/t;
  • Corn December contract up 10.75c/bu to 691.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract up 18.5c/bu to 1427.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was up C$15.20/t to $884.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract up €26.25/t to  €665/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract  up A$20/t to $503/t ;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract up A$10/t to $350/t;
  • AUD dollar unchanged at US$0.640.

International

The United Nations said yesterday there were no ships transiting the Black Sea maritime humanitarian corridor on the night of 29 Oct when Russia says its vessels in Crimea were attacked. 

Twelve ships departed Ukraine yesterday despite Russia’s suspension, and more ships currently are inbound.  

“Civilian cargo ships can never be a military target or held hostage,” UN program coordinator Amir Abdullah said. “The food must flow.” 

Turkey remains committed to the deal, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying “Even if Russia behaves hesitantly because it didn’t receive the same benefits, we will continue decisively our efforts to serve humanity.” 

Russia emphasised it was not withdrawing from the deal but only suspending it.  

Russia said on Monday that it was “unacceptable” for shipping to pass through the Black Sea security corridor. “Under the current conditions, there can be no question of guaranteeing the security of any object in the indicated direction until the Ukrainian side accepts additional obligations not to use this route for military purposes.” Russian missiles targeted the capital, Kyiv, including essential civilian infrastructure, on Monday, leaving parts of the city without water and electricity.  Explosions were also reported in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kremenchuk and Vinnytsia regions.

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry said that as of 27 October 16.7 million hectares were sown with winter crops compared with 17.6 million on the same date last year. In some central regions, planting is 20-25% below average due to the adverse weather. 

Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, IKAR projects 2023-24 wheat production at 87Mt (101Mt this year) and exportable surplus in 2022/23 (Jul/Jun) at 50Mt.

Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange reports that drought conditions are forecast to result in 2022-23 wheat production in the core growing areas falling to 1.3Mt (compared to 7.8Mt previous year).  Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) is believed to have purchased around 385,000t wheat from optional origins, with the majority expected to be sourced from Russia, at around $373/t c&f, Nov/Dec shipment. 

Australia

Feed grain prices fell dramatically yesterday through the northern areas of the eastern Australian grain belt as headers started rolling. If you could find a prompt home for SFW it was around $400-405/t. Brisbane was still holding up at $470/t. Other markets around the country kicked and were all firmer across the board. Old crop liquidity on Clear Grain Exchange picked up with approx. 21,000t trading yesterday. 

The hits keep on coming with more rain falling overnight and continuing today for parts of Qld, NSW, Vic and SA with cold wind and hail storms on the cards. Heavy rain and hail have also hit crops in WA interrupting harvest and causing some damage. 

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