Wheat, canola, rapeseed and Brent crude eased further.
- Chicago December wheat down US9.75c/bu to 556.25c/bu;
- Kansas December wheat down 15.75c/bu to 629.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec wheat down 8.5c/bu to 709.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec down €2.25/t to €229.50/t;
- Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
- Corn December up 0.5c/bu to 478.75c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2024 up 2.5c/bu to 1338.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$8.10/t to $694.70/t
- MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €1.75/t to €440.25/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat down A$2.50/t to $390.50/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley down A$6.50/t to A$323.50/t;
- AUD dollar down 40 points to US$0.6337
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service post in Buenos Aires has some very different ideas to the official WASDE numbers, pegging Argentina’s 2023-24 wheat crop at 14.5Mt, 2Mt lower than the official USDA number, noting that analysts and producers are still evaluating the negative impact of frosts in early October which could drop production even further. Wheat exports are forecast at 10Mt, 1.5Mt lower than USDA. Barley production was pegged at 4.4Mt, 0.9Mt lower than USDA with exports at 2.8Mt, 600kt lower. Production of 2023-24 corn is forecast at 53Mt on an area 200,000 hectares lower than USDA had forecast, the lower area due to dry weather and some shift of area to soybeans which currently have better returns. Corn exports are forecast at 38Mt, 3Mt lower than USDA. Sorghum production is projected at 3.2Mt, 0.7Mt higher than USDA on a larger area, with exports at 1.3Mt as local brokers believe demand from China will continue.
Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier said it’s been a tale of two extremes for weather early in the growing season in Brazil, as east central and northeastern areas are too hot and dry while southern areas have been inundated with too much rain. Dr Cordonnier cut his Brazilian soybean and corn crop estimates 2Mt each to 160Mt and 123Mt, respectively, while maintaining lower biases. He said any soybeans planted, or replanted, from this point forward would run an increased risk of lower yields, especially if the weather were to remain erratic in east central and northeastern Brazil. Corn area would likely be influenced by lower safrinha corn acreage than originally expected, given soybean planting delays and the need for some replanting.
Tunisia’s state grains office reportedly purchased 100kt soft wheat and 75kt barley in a tender that closed yesterday. Wheat was priced between US$268.32-$270.48/t and barley $220-$221/t.
Jordan is in the market for 120kt wheat, with a Nov 7 tender, for Jan/Feb shipment.
Japan’s MAFF is seeking 113,506t milling quality wheat from the US, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Thursday.
US private exporters reported sales of 239,492t soybeans to Mexico during the 2023-24 marketing year.
The ASX eastern Australia January wheat contract traded down to $389/t yesterday, with harvest pressure continuing to bleed the market a little. Delivered Darling Downs wheat traded lower to $450/t. Port Kembla track wheat price was somewhat resilient but was partially held firmer by bulk handlers competing to own grain in their sites. The forecast for rain is building some hope of a renewed late sorghum plant towards the end of the year although 50mm is needed to draw any significant interest.
Viterra received 456kt for the week ending 29 Oct, taking total receivals to 729kt, with barley and wheat making up most tonnage received. CBH received just over 1Mt last week, taking their tally to 1.7Mt. The update noted that it’s been a slow build in the Kwinana North zone, which is used to a more rapid pace this time of year. Conversely, the Kwinana South zone is experiencing a much busier time this year than it did last year, reflecting the drier finish to the season. Harvest in the Esperance zone was slowed by wet weather, while the Albany zone had a strong run for the week. Harvest could be wrapping up for some growers in the northern part of the Geraldton zone in just over a week, while some in the south are only just starting their programs.