Wheat markets continue to gradually rise. CBOT and KC both closed +2.5¢, Minny up a quarter cent. Matif was off a euro.  Corn dropped a penny by the close while beans were up 2¢ (Matif up three quarters of a euro, Winnipeg down ninety cents).  Crude oil is trading around $42.9 WTI / $45.6 Brent and the DOW fell 224 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average composition also changed again today. In theory this doesn’t cause an immediate price change as weightings account for changes in composition. The USD imdex remains around 92.1, with the AUD at 73.9¢, the CAD $1.303, and the EUR $1.194.

Have we exhausted the buying interest? It’s a hard question to answer, but markets are definitely looking for the next big story to justify a continued move upwards.  The next USDA WASDE report will be released on Friday week and markets will be watching the production figures there.  Cooler US weather is a welcome relief, but dry conditions remain stressful for many.  Outside of US row crops though, markets are starting to look more heavily towards the southern hemisphere and new crop northern hemisphere wheat planting.

Global Highlights:

• US export sales flashes saw another 596,000t of corn sold, to China this time.  Still no confirmation or substance to back up rumours of wheat business, but the board rally is seeing a few attempts at justifying the price move with sales rumours
• Corn crop worries and, to a slightly lesser extent, bean worries remain front and centre for row crops in the US. There’s more pessimism in recent field reports and plenty of attention paid by the news.
• Government crop good-to-excellent conditions reports were down 2pc on corn to 62pc, and down 3pc on beans to 66pc. But for the week ahead all eyes are focussed on any further deterioration.  Spring wheat harvest progress was 69pc complete, up from 49pc last week
• StatsCanada updated crop production report pegged wheat at 35.7Mt (durum 6.9Mt and canola 19.4Mt.  The report rarely would be a market driver. This update was heavily driven by the satellite modelling as opposed to more traditional survey data
• Argentina has seen a little moisture added onto the extended forecasts, raising some hope that the crop collapse may slow down
• A private Russian analyst group released yet another higher production estimate, 82.8Mt, up 300,000t, even as other estimates have steadied with the advance of the spring wheat harvest

Australia:

• Local new season wheat markets started the week relatively unchanged
• New crop canola values were a fraction softer into the local domestic crushers
• Old crop markets steadied with some buying interest into domestic homes
• Crop conditions continue to improve as we head into spring, although parts of Qld and northern NSW would much appreciate another rain
• Talks of early harvest getting underway at the end of the month in CQ