Markets

Daily Market Wire 10 August 2021

Lachstock Consulting, August 10, 2021

Monday saw most markets give back Friday’s gains.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US7.75c/bu to 711.25c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 4.25c/bu to 701.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 7.5c/bu to 908.75c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €0.25/t to €229.25/t;
  • Corn September contract was down 4.75c/bu to 550.25c;
  • Soybeans September contract down 2.75c/bu to 1341.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was down C$9.60 to $882.20;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract down €2.25/t to €540.25/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.2 to 93;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.733;
  • CAD weaker at $1.258;
  • EUR weaker at $1.174;
  • ASX wheat September contract up A$0.50/t to A$329.50/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $6/t to $331/t.

International

The next WASDE report will be published on Thursday.

Monday markets in the US failed to hold up the earlier optimism from the overnight session – Chicago wheat ended down 7 3/4¢, KC -4 1/4¢, Minny -7.5¢, and Matif -0.25€ on the earlier close.  Corn was off 4 3/4¢ and beans -2 3/4¢ (Winnipeg -$9.6, Matif -2.25€).  Crude oil has dropped nearly two bucks to $66.5 WTI / $69.0 Brent as concerns about the resumption of corona restrictions/surge in Delta cases globally heightens fears about the demand recovery, and the DOW dropped 106 points.  The USD has picked up strength to 92.9 on the index, with the AUD at 73.3¢, the CAD $1.257, and the EUR $1.173.

Increased travel restrictions in China (they announced a plan yesterday to regulate domestic travel based on case status) are spooking global macro markets as questions about the economic impact do the rounds.  So far the restrictions have not had a substantial impact, but with the imposition just starting and an unknown duration markets are worried.

Corn Belt weather maps are still adding moisture for later this month (beneficial to some bean areas) with the latest model runs pushing a widespread 1-2″+ across the Corn Belt for late August

Regular US crop progress figures had winter wheat harvest up to 95pc completed, mostly remaining only in Idaho and Montana. Spring wheat progress was reported 38pc complete, up 21% week on week, as hot/dry weather leads to fast fieldwork.  Corn conditions were pegged up 2pc to 64pc good-to-excellent, a slightly unusual jump for this point in the year. Beans conditions were unchanged 60pc good-to-excellent. Milo/sorghum was rated 1pc better, at 63pc.

Another US export sales flash had two boats of new crop beans to unknown destination, many are assuming China.

Cattle futures were off for both feeders and fats, despite the weaker grain markets, with cash trading leading lower late last week and more expectations about herd liquidation in the higher feed price environment.

Continuing on the meat side, Tyson was in the news complaining about their costs, blaming high inflation for part of their challenges. They would appear to be including the grain price rally in this category. Their  recently-announced earnings results did beat expectations substantially.

Corn loadings in the regular weekly inspections reports were terrible, at 0.6 million tonnes (Mt), beans 0.1Mt and wheat 0.6Mt including some PNW wheat to China.

Survey estimates for this week’s WASDE reports are generally in the ~177-178 range for corn yield, ~50.5 range for bean yields. Both are slightly below USDA July figures.  Wheat production estimates are also slightly lower for spring wheat, ideas averaging ~20 mbu lower, with various estimates sub-300 mbu on HRS.

Iraq announced last night that they intend to import more wheat to offset lower domestic production this year.

Australia

Local markets firmed again yesterday to start the week on a positive note. Wheat lifted A$5/t in places for new crop and $2-3/t for spot old crop.  Barley continued to firm too, as markets saw an increase in new crop bids.

Canola markets continued to print new contract highs for the new crop with bids firm across the port zone.

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