Daily Market Wire 10 December 2018

Lachstock Consulting, December 10, 2018

Higher for grains and mixed for oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat was up 15.75c to 531.25c,
  • Kansas wheat was up 16.5c to 512c
  • Spring wheat up 12.25c to 581.5c
  • CBOT corn was up 2.75c to 385.5c
  • Matif corn unchanged at  €174,
  • Soybeans were up 7.25c to 916.75c,
  • Winnipeg canola down C$0.60 to $485.50,
  • Matif canola was up €1.25 to €372.25,
  • Dow Jones was down -558.72 to 24388.95
  • Crude oil was up 2.18pc to $52.61 per barrel
  • AUD 0.718,
  • CAD  0.749
  • EUR 1.138


Wheat found some demand which encouraged bulls, prompting some short covering. Export sales came in at 711.8 which was well above expectations of 450kmt, this combined with a 224kmt flash sale of HRW (thought to be Iraq) which supported winter wheats. Implied vol in March SRW finished at 22.25%, Matif Wheat was up 1.75€ to 203.75€, Black Sea Wheat was up 2$ to 248$ and the Ruble was up 0.73% to 0.015. The world wheat consumer remains short and the availability of supply in Q1 and early Q2 next year is declining. Australia appears to have been successful in another round of Philippines purchases late last week, as supplies and availability in the Black Sea decreases. It all comes down to Argentina’s ability to supply the world in this period, which we think it questionable


Corn finished with mild gains, following strength in wheat, but facing a drag from demand uncertainty which links back to politics. Export sales for the week were 1.18mmt vs market ideas of 950kmt. Production ideas in Brazil are increasing and Ukraine offers remains cheap, US corn has met resistance from grower selling on breaks higher, so bulls are reluctant until they can paint a consistent demand picture.


Beans finished higher, supported by export sales which came in at 890kmt, above market expectations. Trump came out on twitter stating that the trade negotiations were going well, but this may have been an attempt to overshadow disappointing local economic data. Soybean Meal was down US$-0.80 per tonne and Soy oil was up 0.05 points.


Aussie markets were mixed last week with cash price resistance noted in areas where grower liquidity has dried up. But there is still much anticipation for WA wheat which is yet to get through the bulk of things so far. Its difficult to see a heap of pressure there though, given that we are near export parity in low grades, we have a short supply of higher grades and the farmer is cashed up and probably not in a position to bring a lot more cash flow into this financial year. Weather wise we have 15-20mm across the East Coast which will delay the remaining harvest in Victoria but should provide a decent moisture top up for sorghum. Consumer behaviour this week with limited grower liquidity on the East Coast, could be telling of their price behaviour over the next three months.

Source: Lachstock Consulting



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