Markets

Daily Market Wire 10 December 2019

Guest Author, December 10, 2019

Monday’s oilseed settlements were higher and grain settlements were mixed.

  • Chicago wheat March contract down 1.75 cents per bushel to 522.75c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 5c/bu to 426c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 1.25c/bu to 513.25c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract unchanged at €183.25/t;
  • Corn March contract down 1c to 375.75c;
  • Soybeans January contract up 7.75c/bu to 897.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola January contract up C$0.70/t to $459.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €1.75/t to €398.75/t;
  • Brent crude February contract down US$0.14 to $64.25 per barrel;
  • Dow Jones index down 105.46 points to 27909.60 points;
  • AUD weaker at $0.6823;
  • CAD stronger at $1.3242;
  • EUR stronger at $1.1065.

The boards traded mixed overnight in some position balancing prior to tomorrow’s report, with Chicago wheat settling off a cent and three quarter to 522 3/4¢, KC -5¢ to 426¢, and Minny up 1 1/4c to 513 1/4¢.  Corn was down 1c to 375.75¢ while beans continued to gain on the trade optimism (+7 3/4¢ to 897.25¢).  Canola followed beans up, with Matif up a euro seventy five to 398.75€ and Winnipeg picking up 70¢ to $459.1.  Crude oil was off ~30¢ to $59/barrel WTI and $64.25/barrel Brent, while the DOW gave up 105 points.  The AUD is nominally weaker at 68.2¢, CAD at $1.323, and the EUR at $1.106.

Trade politics are being seen in a decidedly more optimistic tone today.

The US is reportedly near an agreement (internally) that is expected to see the new North American Free Trade Agreement passed (now known as the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) and tariff waivers by China from Friday are supporting optimism about progress there.

Time is running out before the Dec 15th tariff hikes though with less than a week left to go.

As always nothing concrete to be found besides “positive” comments.

The USDA’s December WASDE is due out late tonight (midday US time) though, given prior comments from the USDA, no significant changes are expected to the row crop S&Ds.

Harvest is an ongoing question across the Northern Plains, with updated figures out today still showing North Dakota corn under 50pc picked. National progress is only pushing to 92pc, up 3pc on last week but still leaving 8pc of the crop in the field.

Stocks surveys are happening now, and there’s an ongoing question about how accurately the unharvested crops will be reflected there but, again, we won’t see anything tomorrow.

On the global side they’re likely to cut wheat crops in Australia and Canada towards ABARES/StatsCan levels, and likely a trim to Argentina given local conditions.

As we’ve mentioned before, weather is still a risk across parts of the EU and southern US for winter wheat crops and these issues will most likely start to pick up more attention later in the month as focus shifts more towards the new season.

In the meantime, GASC is back once again (for mid Feb) so it’s time to see how well Russian offers will compete again.

There’s lots of discussion in the market about the potential for lower Russian exports, but there is still grain available in the meantime, albeit at firmer prices as each week passes.

Australia

Back locally, much of Victoria saw harvest stopped with fire bans in place.  Some, though, got back into it overnight and we’re likely to see full progress ahead for the rest of the week.

Stop, start – not a fun harvest so far.

South Australian harvest also continues with a clear week ahead. Barley’s around 80pc complete and wheat’s pushing over half done.

Some slow harvest in WA last week though, with only some 300,000t in during the week bringing total receivals up to about 8.9 Mt.

Markets kicked off the week stronger on the cash boards across most port zones with lower grade wheat spreads up $1-2/t through the south.

Canola also started strong up $2-3/t from Friday, Melbourne market continues to trade approximately $8-10/t over Geelong while the canola harvest is just getting under way through that port zone

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