Soybeans and corn firmed 2pc. US wheat closed firmer after a weaker open, and EU/Black Sea given time zone differences missed the WASDE report day and closed lower.
- Chicago wheat March contract up US6.25cents per bushel to 785c/bu;
- Kansas wheat March contract up 13.75c/bu to 815c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat March up 13.25c/bu to 953.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March contract down €1.75/t to €262.75/t;
- Corn March contract up 14.5c/bu to 646.75c/bu;
- Soybeans March contract up 25.75c/bu to 1594.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola May 2022 contract up C$6.40/t to $1013.50/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2022 contract up €5.75/t to €682.75/t;
- ASX March 2022 wheat contract A$1/t firmer at $360/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract $2/t firmer at $361/t;
- AUD dollar firmer at US$0.718.
Black Sea wheat was down US$0.50/t. Soybean meal rose 2 per cent and soybean oil rose 1pc. The soybean market has rallied 20pc since the start of the year.
Looking at USDA’s WASDE numbers, you would be right to assume the outcome should have been slightly bearish across the main ag commodities. However, the market sees this as the report that tightens from here and, as we have seen in the past, USDA is being slow and conservative. Add in a drier South American outlook and the buyers turned up.
WASDE report days are more about the result versus the expectation rather than the reality of the fundamental number. The February report has historically been a snoozer but, in this environment, every release matters. Wheat was down 5c/bu post the release but added 10c into the close because the US numbers were bearish and missed pre-report estimates to the fat side. This is all about the explosive set-up around South American production, and with inflation at the forefront of every investment decision, money is looking for a home with a story. Russia-Ukraine tension has moved to the back page but is still an input that shouldn’t be ignored.
Local markets were steady yesterday. Barley was on the quiet side as bid-offer spreads remain wide through the track markets, delivered east coast values were a touch stronger
Canola values in VIC and NSW pulled back $10/t while some more interest sparked up in SA. The forecast remains dry still for the next eight to 10 days to allow sorghum to be harvested and delivered. While some sorghum-growing areas had more than 100 millimetres of rain on the cusp of harvest, those crops are holding at SORG1 quality, and yields continue to outperform.
Source: Lachstock Consulting