Thursday’s offshore markets were convincingly weaker, except soybean meal which gained 3pc. ASX wheat and barley gained more than 1pc.
- Chicago wheat May 2023 contract down US7 cents per bushel to 768c/bu;
- Kansas wheat May 2023 contract down 15.5c/bu at 868c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat May 2023 contract down 8.5c/bu to 910c/bu;
- MATIF wheat May 2023 contract down €2.25/t to €289.50/t;
- Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$0.25 to $304.75/t;
- Corn May 2023 contract down 7.25c/bu to 669c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2023 contract down 2c/bu to 1511.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$3.60/t to $823.20/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract down €6.50/t to €547.75/t;
- ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract up A$5/t to $390/t;
- ASX Mar 2023 barley contract up A$4.50/t to $331.50/t;
- AUD dollar gained to US$0.694.
Agricultural consulting agency Stratégie Grains reported that due to modestly uprated area figures in a number of EU producing countries, including in France and Italy, 2023-24 EU common wheat production forecast is marginally higher (0.4Mt) than previously, at 129.7Mt (125.6Mt previous year). Total barley production near unchanged from before, at 52.3Mt (51.4Mt), while maize production is trimmed slightly, to 63.4Mt (50.7Mt), reflecting smaller acreage in France, Italy and Croatia. In general, winter crops are seen in mostly good condition. Nevertheless, there is still some risk of winterkill owing to recent mild weather in some countries, notably in south-eastern areas. Furthermore, additional rains are needed, notably in France and Spain, so that water reserves can be rebuilt ahead of the resumption of plant growth during the spring.
US weekly wheat sales were 131,400t, down 4pc from the previous week and 56pc from the prior 4-week average. Corn net sales of 1,160,300t were down 27pc from the previous week, but up 19pc from the prior 4-week average. Soybeans sales of 459,400t were down 38pc from the previous week and 49pc from the prior 4-week average .
Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange reports that although recent rains were helpful, a return to dry conditions during the next two weeks lowers the forecast for 2022-23 soybean production by a further 2.5Mt, to 34.5Mt, which would represent a 14-year low. Similarly, expectations for maize output are downgraded by 2.5Mt, to 42.5Mt. Drought will curb yields by up to 40pc in key areas if high temperatures and dryness persist.
Brazil’s national agricultural agency Conab reported a downgraded figure for harvested area would more than be offset by a higher figure for average yields. Its 2022-23 soybean production forecast was marginally higher, at 152.9Mt, than before and greatly exceeds the 125.5Mt crop in the previous year. Against the backdrop of increased processing, total soymeal output seen at 40.4Mt (37.9Mt). Reflecting a downgraded secondary (safrinha) crop figure amid seeding delays, 2022-23 total maize production forecast was 1.3Mt lower m/m, at 123.7Mt (113.1Mt previous year). In preliminary projections for 2023-24, wheat production was seen steady y/y, at 10.6Mt.
According to Chinese trade data, China was the main destination for Brazilian corn shipments in January, totalling 983,684t.
According to Refinitiv Commodities Research, following earlier cold weather, recent and forecast wet conditions in China are expected to be favourable for winter wheat production prospects. At 140.0Mt, output is seen 1pc higher than previously.
Algeria’s state grains agency (OAIC) reportedly purchased milling wheat from optional origins for Apr shipment, including 30,000-60,000t at US$330.50/t c&f and a further 60,000 t at $332/t c&f.
Taiwan Flour Millers Association secured an estimated 48,100t milling wheat from the US for Mar/Apr shipment, including 30,650t DNS (min. 14.5pc protein content), at $390.58/t fob, 9,300t HRW (12.5pc) at $397.56/t fob and 8,150t soft white wheat (8.5pc-10.0pc) at $324.44/t fob. Separately, freight is priced at $34.95/t.
An importer group in Thailand reportedly bought about 60,000t feed wheat from Australia, at $337/t c&f , for Apr shipment and an unspecified amount of feed barley, at an estimated $309.80/t c&f for April-May exports.
Local markets were firmer yesterday following the offshore futures rally.
ASX eastern Australia wheat March 23 contract closed $5/t higher at $390/t. Liquidity is reportedly poor with shorts still getting squeezed. Freight rates have been softening from recent highs.
For the week ending 9 February rainfall has been hit and miss for sorghum growing regions. Storms brought patchy rain to northern NSW and southern Qld but the totals were modest. CQ rainfall was also patchy but saw higher totals. About 1-5mm rainfall is expected on the 8-day forecast.
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