Daily Market Wire 10 July 2024

Lachstock Consulting July 10, 2024

Canola, rapeseed and soybeans eased about 2 percent, Matif wheat firmed almost 2pc and US cereals markets moved in fractions.

  • Chicago December 2024 up 1 US cent per bushel to US595.5c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat up 0.5c/bu to 596.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 0.25c/bu to 636.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 up €4/t to €233.25/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 up 0.75c/bu to 408.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 down 19.5c/bu to 1080c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 down C$16.10/t to C$632.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 down €11.25/t to €490.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat down A$2/t to $352/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley unchanged at $A303.90/t;
  • AUD dollar up 3 points to US$0.6741.


Corn and wheat markets managed to break even overnight while the sword was taken to beans. Since the May high, beans have fallen 150usc/bu and posted their lowest close since Nov 2020. Despite the break in beans overnight, the crush was led lower by meal which has turned very heavy, both in the US and globally. 

The wires are all full of production uplifts. Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan and Pakistan all are rumoured to have more in the tank compared to the last USDA guess. USDA will refresh these ideas on Friday which seems a little more interesting post the CFTC Commitment of Traders report. The spec is seemingly pretty clear on the fundamental picture and there are record shorts aplenty, especially in corn and beans. 

French harvest is rolling along, and winter barley is the first cab off the rank. According to FranceAgriMer the early harvest is nothing short of disappointing. It cut 6pc from its good-to-excellent crop condition rating during the first 33pc of harvest. There are some expectations that barley may be a little worse than wheat, but its early days. The USDA has EU wheat production pegged at 130.5 million tonnes (Mt), Russian wheat at 83Mt and Ukraine at 19.5Mt but any cuts feel like they have a balancing item elsewhere. To some extent, it doesn’t feel like it matters if the Russian crop is 79-83Mt given the assumed urgency to get sales on the books. Interestingly the top and tail on Russian exports is considerably larger than the production estimates. The Russian Grain Union is sitting at 40Mt while the USDA is still at 48Mt. 

On the weather front it’s a mixed bag. The heat building in the Black Sea region will be bringing harvest on quickly. The usual midpoint for Russian harvest is usually around early to mid Aug so a few weeks matters when talking about harvest pressure. Early Romanian and Ukrainian paddocks are showing signs of higher feed percentage than usual, although early harvest reports are notoriously inaccurate. 

Reports appeared on Twitter X that a hailstorm ripped through the midwest, flattened corn crops and rolled up centre pivots. Not sure it moved the needle on production. 

Movements in the Australian dollar compared with the US dollar are all about the rate spread. Simply, one rate increase was priced in here and two cuts in the US. Meanwhile, data points that normally would provide some pressure to the AUD are going largely unheard. China steel rebar is now trading back to 2017 levels, iron ore inventory at Chinese ports continues to increase and Chinese equities have fallen 8.5pc since May. China’s top leadership will gather next week for the Third Plenum, a major policy meeting which historically has triggered some pivotal shifts. New growth drivers will provide the blueprint to transforming traditional industries. The world will be watching and, undoubtedly, the AUD direction will be heavily influenced. The timing is interesting given Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s recent tariff talk, and countries such as Indonesia slapping on a 200pc tariff on Chinese finished goods.


In WA, the bids were softer across the board yesterday given the lower offshore markets and the recently stronger Australia dollar. 

May ABS WA exports were 539kt wheat (compared to monthly average 837kt so far this market year), barley 164kt (401kt average for 23/24) and canola 337kt (291kt average for 23/24). 

In the east, some of the canola gains made this week dropped back (around A$25-30/t in some places). There was also a drop in cereal markets, although it was much less aggressive. 

ABS May data gave a new Victorian record export of 527kt of wheat, this together with Jun/Jul lineups has moved Vic wheat export progress estimates from 80pc to 91pc complete compared to our LSC full year target. 

The speculation around another interest rate hike from the RBA because of higher-than-expected retail sales and CPI is helping lift the AUD/USD, which has firmed 2 percent since early June, and has rallied about 5 percent since mid-April lows.

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