Crude oil has slipped back a buck again, hitting $64.0 WTI/$67.5 Brent after a bearish EIA US production forecast and the DOW is up 213 points.
- Chicago wheat May contract up US10c/bu to 656.5c;
- Kansas wheat May contract up 4.75c/bu to 626.5c;
- Minneapolis wheat May contract up 5.75c/bu to 645.5c;
- MATIF wheat May contract down €1/t to €229.25;
- Corn May contract down 1.25c/bu to 545.75c;
- Soybeans May contract up 6.25c/bu to 1440c;
- Winnipeg canola May contract up C$0.1/t to $796.20;
- MATIF rapeseed May contract down €5/t to €520.75;
- US dollar index down 0.4 to 92;
- AUD firmer at US$0.772;
- CAD firmer at $1.263;
- EUR firmer at $1.189;
- ASX wheat May contract up A$0.50/t to $298;
- ASX wheat January 2022 down $1.50/t to $308.50.
The March WASDE report, yet again, was a non-event from a numbers point of view. The USDA kicked the can down the road on demand for all crops, with ending stocks unchanged for wheat, corn, and soybeans. They made a few minor tweaks on by-class wheat allocations, but otherwise it was all about pushing forward until they get the March stocks report (Mar 31 release) and hoping that the demand will solve itself.
Markets sold off immediately post report, but managed to firm back up with some value buying later in the session – and bulls pushing the idea that this will mean larger shifts to come when the USDA is forced to “accept the demand”. Time will tell – both acreage and stocks reports coming will be significant for corn and beans
Algeria’s OAIC wheat tender from the other day reportedly trading ~US$323-4/t candf range. Volume ideas still varying, but should solidify in the next day. Plenty of interest to see where these will load from (as always, optional origin) given the numerous calculations on very tight French (and EU in general) wheat balance sheets and the messy freight market right now.
At the same time, Black Sea cash markets on old crop wheat are seeing some pressure. More farmer sales are being reported and windows are tight prior to new crop harvest. The generally optimistic new crop outlooks not hurting anything either.
Leading into tomorrow’s weekly ethanol updates in the US, news reports about more US ethanol boats sailing to China are doing the rounds. Lachstock hasn’t yet confirmed if these three are actually new boats or a re-report on the ones that loaded in mid-Feb, but either way the flow is expected to continue with more still to load.
South American weather maps are still giving a little relief for southern Brazil this week, but next week’s runs are widespread across the entire soybean belt again. Harvest is plugging forward but there is no change to the ongoing problems and losses
Argentine weather, by contrast, remains too dry. There’s a little optimism next week’s forecast moisture may build, but in the short term there’s lots of concern if rain does not eventuate.
Rains arrived just as forecast in northern NSW and Queensland’s southern Darling Downs, timely and welcome falls between 25mm and about 40mm.
NSW forecasts predict storms later this week bringing 20-30mm in the centre of the state, but again southern areas are seen as missing out.
Tuesday’s post-holiday market was little changed from Friday.
Early reports emerged of east coast forage grains seeding and more interest in early plantings of canola, with April only a few weeks away.
Source: Lachstock Consulting