Daily Market Wire 10 March 2023

Lachstock Consulting, March 10, 2023

US wheat markets fell about 3 percent.

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract down US21.75 cents per bushel to 665.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract down 23c/bu at 777.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023  down 21c/bu to 817.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 down €3.25/t to €263.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 down US$1/t to $294/t;
  • Corn May 2023 contract down 14c/bu to 611.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract down 7c/bu to 1510.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$15.80/t to $792.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract down €14.25/t to €499/t;
  • ASX May 2023 wheat contract up A$1/t to $400/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$2.50/t to $410/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$330.50/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 1 point to US$0.6590.


Russia and the UN will hold talks in Geneva on Monday on renewing the Black Sea Grain Initiative but Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday that extending the deal was becoming “complicated,” as he claimed the agreement on Russian exports was not being respected. “If the package is half fulfilled, then the issue of extension becomes quite complicated,” Lavrov said during a press conference in Moscow. “Our Western colleagues, the United States and the European Union, pathetically declare that no sanctions apply to food and fertilisers, but this position is dishonest,” Lavrov said. “In fact the sanctions prohibit Russian ships carrying grain and fertilisers from entering the corresponding ports, sanctions prohibit foreign ships from entering Russian ports to pick up this cargo,” he said.

The Rosario Grains Exchange has slashed production forecasts citing the impact of historic drought. Soybean production forecast cut by 7.5Mt, to 27.0Mt (USDA 33Mt), down 45pc on initial production prospects, and potentially the worst production in 15 seasons. Maize output cut by 7.5Mt, to 35Mt (USDA 40Mt), down 35pc on initial expectations, with the recent reduction largely incorporating reduced yields in later-sown fields. “Argentina is suffering from a climate scenario without precedent in modern agriculture,” the exchange said, with the country facing the driest season in 60 years and the highest temperatures since the early 1900s.

According to Brazil’s grain exporters’ association (ANEC), Mar soybean exports are forecast at 14.7Mt (12.2Mt same month of previous year) and soymeal at 1.9Mt (1.4Mt).

The Ukrainian grain harvest may fall 37pc to 34Mt in 2023 because of a smaller area and lower yield, Ukraine’s national academy of agricultural science said on Thursday. The scientists also said a possibly larger area under oilseeds could cause a 13pc rise in Ukraine’s oilseed harvest, which they said could reach 19.3Mt.

Refinitiv Commodities Research cut its 2023-24 Indian wheat production forecast by 1.0Mt, to 107.6Mt, but production was anticipated to remain above the long-term average owing to increased plantings. Hotter than normal temperature and dryness were expected to persist in Northern India for the near-term, adversely impacting yields in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Cooler temperatures are forecast for later this month, which could minimise the risk from further heat damage.

Jordan’s state grain buyer reportedly bought about 50,000t feed barley from optional origins, at $279.50/t c&f, Jun shipment.

Algeria’s OAIC reportedly bought about 200,000t durum from optional origin for April shipment, with traders estimating prices at $440-$449/t c&f.

Saudi Arabia’s General Food Security Authority seeks (10 Mar) 480,000t milling wheat from optional origins, Jul/Aug shipment.


Local markets continued to track sideways. Small quantities traded of the ASX eastern wheat May23 contract at $400/t and track Vic APW1 was trading around $393-395/t level. Barley bids were also largely unchanged on the boards and canola was a touch softer. 

The rainfall forecast over the next four days is still looking like 25-100mm for most of southern Qld except for the southwest and 15-50mm for northeast NSW. Rain would be very welcome after below to very much below average rainfall received over summer.


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