Markets

Daily Market Wire 10 May 2021

Lachstock Consulting, May 10, 2021

Grain and oilseed markets closed higher in Friday trading.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US8.5c/bu to 761.75c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract up 10c/bu to 736.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract up 7c/bu to 797.5c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €1.75/t to €232/t;
  • Corn July contract up 13.5c/bu to 732.25;
  • Soybeans July contract up 20.25c/bu to 1589.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract up C$42.40/t to $1005.90;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €0.25/t to €540.75/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.7 to 90.2;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.784;
  • CAD firmer at $1.212;
  • EUR firmer at $1.216;
  • ASX wheat July contract up AU$5/t to $322/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $7/t to $328/t.

International

Global cash markets have followed Chicago futures higher, and the cash price for Russian wheat was quoted at US$280/t, $6/t higher on the day, while Black Sea wheat futures also rallied $6/t.  Canola has also gained, with Winnipeg July cracking the C$1000/t barrier on Friday.

While the market legs higher every day there really isn’t much new; this is still all about Brazil and its safrinha corn crop, with less than 90 million tonnes now on the cards. This adds pressure to the wheat balance sheet due to the inevitable switch from expensive corn to slightly less expensive wheat. As with the US row-crop situation, the risk is still in front of us, although recent moisture in the Black Sea will help sure up that region’s crop prospects. Higher prices are seemingly not impacting Chinese demand, with another 1.36Mt of US corn heading its way.

Australia

Delivered markets finished the week slightly firmer, with most market zones picking up around AU$5/t for the week. Selling liquidity seems limited as Australia pushes through the winter-crop sowing window.

New-crop canola is the talk of the town, with growers attempting to find the right combination of production risk versus price reward.

Last week’s rain put a large part of the New South Wales crop back on track with crop germination, filling in areas that were lacking top soil moisture. There are still some patchy areas in NSW that need rain this week to buy confidence. Buyers are also seemingly aware of this and are keen to be in front of the next selling event. The NSW Port Kembla track reached new short-term highs of $772/t for new-crop canola.

Scattered showers pushed across parts of South Australia over the past 48 hours, with totals pushing upwards to 10-15 millimetres. This goes a long way in what has been a very dry start for SA growers.

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