Daily Market Wire 10 May 2022

Lachstock Consulting, May 10, 2022


  • Chicago wheat July contract down US15.75 cents per bushel to 1092.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 6.25/bu to 1164.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July down 2c/bu to 1206.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €3/t to €394.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract up $0.50/t to $384.75/t;
  • Corn July contract down 12.75/bu to 772c/bu;
  • Soybeans July contract down 36.75c/bu to 1585.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$8/t to $1073.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €3.50/t to €831.75/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract unchanged at $435/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $6/t to $443/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.695


Macro shmacro. Wider commodity markets fell under the reality that the days of free cash are behind us. As global central banks start to ratchet rates higher, commodity markets try to ascertain what is fair value. The impact on working capital requirements with unit costs high, in many cases over double, and the cost of funds squirting higher will be felt in agricultural commodity markets. Trade houses won’t have unlimited appetite, despite wide open export margins.

April grain exports from Ukraine were far below normal levels in April, as the war affected operations of terminals and ports on the Black Sea, Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi said in Kyiv. Ukraine normally could ship 5m tonnes or more of grain monthly via its ports, Solskyi said. Grain exports in April increased m/m from 200,000 tons in March due to added shipping capacity of Danube ports. Availability of grain shipping logistics in the Danube area and in Romanian ports may decline when Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary start exporting grain for the new season from July.

The US weekly crop report showed wheat crop conditions had improved 2pc but sit at a woeful rating of 29pc good-to-excellent. US planting progress also has HRS wheat planting at 27pc compared with 47pc average. Beans are not much better at 12pc planted versus 24pc average. Corn has a glimmer of hope with a dryer forecast but needs to get a rattle on; 22pc planted vs 67pc this time last year.


The week kicked off with plenty of demand for current crop wheat with eastern Australian values firming a touch and activity remaining strong through the bulk handling sites.

Port congestion is still a hot topic. Wait times were steady in Albany and Geraldton at 10 to 11 days, slightly longer delays in Brisbane going from 11 days last week to 13 days this week. Wait times in Kwinana are steady at 20 days this week but have increased at Port Kembla and Port Lincoln to around 18 days. The pick of the ports is Esperance where wait times have fallen from 10 days last week to 1 day this week, Newcastle (10 days to 1) and Geelong (5 days to 3).

Rain has started to fall over Queensland with a very wet week on the way. Another dry 24 hours to 9am this morning kept the wheels turning across the rest of the cropping belt ahead of rain forecast to arrive later today and tomorrow for most of NSW, Vic and WA.

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