Daily market wire 10 Nov 2016

Lachstock Consulting, November 10, 2016

lackstock1Commodity markets didn’t absorb yesterday’s influx of news overly well after the Trump upset and the fresh USDA report saw the market fall into red territory across the board.

Markets were up and down throughout the session as projected election results continued to swing with the outlook seeming to be more positive than initially anticipated.

Then we got the USDA report. Kansas and Chicago wheat suffered significant losses followed by corn which was heaviest hit with a 13c weakening.

CBOT Wheat was down -8.5c to 406.75c, Kansas wheat down -7.25c to 410.25c, corn down -13c to 349.75c, soybeans down -19.75c to 982c, Winnipeg canola down -$C1.29 to $C502.1, and Matif canola down -€4 to €390. The Dow Jones up 256.95 to 18589.69 , Crude Oil up 0.36c to 45.34c, AUD up to 0.7648c, CAD down to 1.3414c, (AUDCAD 1.0258) and the was EUR up to 1.0919c (AUDEUR 0.7004).

There isn’t a great deal of fresh news in global wheat markets, nor were there any significant announcements in the USDA report.

We are already aware that there are massive amounts of wheat in the world and the market has been behaving accordingly for quite some time. The outlook doesn’t seem likely to shift from its current performance levels for the foreseeable future.

Soybeans lost just shy of 20c after the USDA jacked up the size of the crop more than expected. We did anticipate an increase in yield, but not to the extent of the USDA figures of 52.5bu/acre.

The USDA increased corn yields to 175.3bu/acre vs expected figures of unchanged to lower from last months numbers. As a result production estimates and end stocks are higher than the market was looking for, thus resulting in a rough end to last night session with a loss of 13c.

Canola put up a fighting effort overnight considering the hits suffered by soybean oil and a weak loonie. The Canadian dollar weakness has gone a long way towards encouraging exports to China. It has been suggested that canola oil import margins into China have finally reached a level worthy of consideration after refineries are starting to come to the party.

Domestically, we are starting to see more high protein wheat than originally anticipated as headers in CQ continue to cover more ground.

There is obviously going to be low protein wheat coming out of many areas but the amount of high protein wheat has been somewhat of a surprise.

The fact that crops have been looking to be high yielding, expectations were that protein levels would be low. It has been suggested that the CQ and areas of the Western Downs are expecting 30% of their crops to go Prime Hard or H1.

Not just in Queensland, but nationwide, end users are predicted to sit on their hands until the last minute until they have a full scope on quality levels as they are still anticipating a great deal of low protein wheat.


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