Markets

Daily Market Wire 10 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting, November 10, 2022

US winter wheat markets eased another 2pc approx. Brent crude had its second 3pc down day and the Dow Jones Industrials Average turned downwards by 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US21.25 cents per bushel to 806.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 15.75c/bu at 930c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 12.25c/bu to 938.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €1.25/t to €328.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up US$0.75 to $317.50/t;
  • Corn December contract down 3c/bu to 664.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract up 4/bu to 1457.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was up C$6.40/t to $888.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract up €2.50/t to  €644/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $A6/t to $484/t ;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$339/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.643.

International

Russia’s Defence Minister has ordered his troops to withdraw from the city of Kherson and surrounding areas on the west bank of the Dnipro River in the face of Ukrainian attacks. In a televised meeting he said: “Having comprehensively assessed the current situation, it is proposed to take up defence along the left bank of the Dnipro River”. However, Ukraine remains sceptical of the announcement with a senior adviser to Zelenskyy saying no signs are evident that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight,  and that a Russian presence exists in the city, with additional reserves charged to the region.

The Mexican Government said on Wednesday it cannot buy yellow corn from the US because it does not want genetically modified (GM) corn. Mexico has a controversial presidential decree that seeks to ban GM corn in 2024 and phase out glyphosate.

The European Commission reports EU 2022-23 (Jul-Jun) shipments for the week ending November 6: all-wheat exports at 324,710t, cumulative at 13Mt, up 5pc on the previous year to date, imports at 242,222t, cumulative at 2.9Mt, up 85pc. Maize exports at 10,457t, cumulative at 500,000t , down 78pc, imports at 591,167t, cumulative at 10.2Mt, up 119pc. Barley exports at 49,010t, cumulative at 3.5Mt, down 33pc, rapeseed/canola at 123,683t, cumulative at 2.5Mt, up 42pc.

Refinitiv Commodities Research projects gains in Russian spring wheat area will more than offset a drop in winter sowings, with 2023-24 all-wheat plantings projected to increase by 2pc year on year to 29.7 million hectares (Mha). Factoring in a return to trend yields, total wheat production is projected to decline to 81.6Mt (13pc below Refinitiv’s 2022-23 forecast. In addition to unattractive prices and uncertainties around conflict escalation, winter planting intentions were likely curtailed by excessive rains in some areas, especially in the Central Federal District, where harvest delays have been problematic. Longer-range weather outlooks show mild conditions are expected during December-February, with widespread warmth and near or above-normal precipitation across most of the country and dryness limited only to southern regions. This favourable weather outlook currently suggests low probabilities of winterkill damage.

Algeria’s OAIC state grains agency bought about 490,000t of milling wheat from optional origins, with initial purchase prices reported at US$367-$368/t c&f for Nov-Dec shipment. Traders think the majority will be sourced from Russia, though some from France is likely.

Brazil’s Conab raised its 2022-23 soybean production estimate from 152.35Mt to 153.5Mt, with exports up from 95.9Mt to 96.5Mt. The corn production estimate was cut by 600,000t pegged lower at 126.4mMt, with exports unchanged.

Australia

Local markets slid a little yesterday as more grain hits the market and we find some liquid sellers. Market shorts are still squeezed for prompt demand in central and southern zones, where we are seeing a significant inverse building.

In Queensland and New South Wales, harvest is still not in full swing but has certainly built pace. With rain on the horizon, operations are pumping where they can to get as much in as possible. The forecast rainfall over the next eight days is certain to bring harvest to a standstill again, with NSW, Victoria, south-west Queensland and eastern South Australia set to receive 25-50 millimetres.

With floods affecting large parts of the eastern states in recent months, health authorities are urging people in rural areas to vaccinate themselves for Japanese Encephalitis Virus.

Grain Central: Get our free news straight to your inbox – Click here

HAVE YOUR SAY

Your email address will not be published.

Your comment will not appear until it has been moderated.
Contributions that contravene our Comments Policy will not be published.

Comments

Get Grain Central's news headlines emailed to you -
FREE!