Daily Market Wire 10 October 2023

Lachstock Consulting, October 10, 2023

Brent crude rallied 4 percent. Kansas HRW wheat firmed 2 percent; otherwise markets moved in fractions of about one percent or less. Canada had a holiday Monday.

  • Chicago wheat December firmed US4.5c/bu to 572.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December firmed 12.25c/bu to 686c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December firmed 10.5c/bu to 731c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December firmed €2.50/t to €237.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December eased 3.75c/bu to 488.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 eased 4.75c/bu to 1308.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg exchanges were closed for Canada’s Thanksgiving Day holiday;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2023 unchanged at €426.25/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 eased €1/t to €449.75/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat firmed A$4/t to $412/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley unchanged at A$348.50/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 27 points to US$0.6411


Kazakhstan’s spring-grain areas were hit by abundant rainfall in August and early September, following a summer drought, according to an EU MARS report, causing harvest delays and losses to yield and grain quality, primarily due to sprouting. The report forecast the Kazakh wheat harvest at 12.3Mt, 25pc below last year. 

Rosario Grains Exchange reported 2023-24 wheat yields in core growing areas could be detrimentally affected due to drought, with reports suggesting that some fields had been left to animals for grazing. Final output will be highly dependent on rains received ahead of harvest. Production forecast was maintained at 15Mt. 

The Alberta Crop Report noted that for the week ending 3 October spring wheat harvest was 95pc complete (99pc last year), barley at 96pc (99pc) and canola harvest was 75pc compete (92pc). Harvest was virtually complete in the South Region. Recent rains across the North West Region and western parts of the South Region were deemed beneficial to restore surface and sub-surface soil moisture. 

IKAR agriculture consultancy raised its forecast for Russia’s grain crop this year to 141.2Mt, up 1.2Mt from its previous forecast. It also revised up the export forecast by 0.5Mt to 64.5Mt.


The ASX eastern Australia Jan 24 wheat contract firmed yesterday by A$4/t to $412/t in the face of building crop potential as poor liquidity contributes to price strength. Canola harvest has kicked off in northern WA and is building momentum in NSW as it shifts south into the northern Riverina.

Australia exported 352kt of barley in August, down 4pc from July, with Japan the biggest market taking 166kt, followed by Vietnam (82kt) and China (56kt). Australia exported 359kt of canola, down 15pc from July, with Japan again the biggest buyer, taking 130kt followed by the EU (124kt) and Mexico (39kt).

Line ups data currently shows 2.31Mt of total grains on the stem for October, including wheat at 1.1Mt, barley at 696kt, canola 471kt and sorghum at 40kt.


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