Markets

Daily Market Wire 10 October 2024

Lachstock Consulting October 10, 2024

Wheat prices continued firmer.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up US4.25c/bu to 599c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat up 5c/bu to 608.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat up 3.25c/bu to 648.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €1/t to €228.75/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 up 0.25c/bu to 421c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 up 4c/bu to 1020.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 down C$1.40/t to $615.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €5.75/t to €490.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat up A$1/t to $334/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley down A$3.50/t to $285/t;
  • AUD dollar down 26 points to US$0.6720.

International

Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is estimated to have purchased 510-570kt of wheat at US$262.50/t c&f Nov shipment, all Russian and Ukraine origin. Algeria reportedly excluded French companies from the tender and required participating firms to not offer French-origin wheat, in an apparent fallout from renewed diplomatic tensions. 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon reported that Russian 12.5pc wheat prices have gained around $10/t in the last two weeks and are now at $230/t. The uptick in prices reflects an increase in futures prices and a historically high export pace. Major buyers of Russian wheat remain actively engaged in the market. This week, Saudi Arabia secured 307kt and Algeria’s 500+kt was reported at the head of this story. SovEcon forecast wheat exports at 47.6Mt this season, down from 52.4Mt last year. 

Russia’s Ag Ministry reportedly has requested an emergency meeting with exporters, possibly to restrict export volumes. 

Russia has struck port infrastructure in Odessa again, with 5 people killed and 9 injured. A Panamanian-flagged container vessel was damaged, which is the third foreign vessel attacked by Russia in the last four days. 

European Commission data for the week ending 6 October shows cumulative soybean imports at 3.3Mt (+4pc from previous year) and canola at 1.4Mt (+17pc). Cumulative wheat exports are at 6.7Mt (-27pc) and barley 2.3Mt (-28pc). 

South Korean Flour Millers’ Association reportedly purchased 30kt of milling wheat from the US for Dec shipment, including 1kt SW (max 9.0pc protein), at $275/t fob, 4.5kt SW (9.5pc-11pc protein), at $275/t fob, 3.5kt HRW (11.5pc), at $280-285/t fob, and 21kt of DNS (14pc), at $300-305/t fob. 

Tunisia’s state grains buyer purchased 125kt of feed barley at $231.60-$239.96/t c&f, Oct/ Dec shipment, with finance being provided by the World Bank. 

US private exporters reported sales of 126kt of corn to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

Canola bids in the west were down A$10-$20/t for conventional seed at around $790/t and GM bids were down $10/t at around $730/t. Cereals were bid $2/t higher to around $368/t for wheat and $318/t for barley. 

In the east of Australia canola values were down by lesser amounts than in the west, with conventional seed, down $2-$10/t, bid around $745/t and GM $695/t. Cereals were largely unchanged.

It was another cold start for the southeast. Severe thunderstorms hit parts of southern Qld and NNSW yesterday afternoon, bringing hail and damaging winds, with crop damage still being assessed.

The rainfall forecast for early next week is building for NSW and Vic, with a widespread 10-50mm expected, while for Qld it has shrunk, with 5-15mm expected. Some higher totals are expected towards the border. WA is looking like it will miss out and SA is forecast to receive less than 15mm in the east and less than 10mm on the EP.

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