Daily Market Wire 10 September 2019

Lachstock Consulting, September 10, 2019
Wheat futures firmed on Monday.
  • Chicago wheat December contract up 10.75 cents per bushel to 474.5c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 4.75c to 398c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 2.5c to 496.75c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €1.5 per tonne to €168.25;
  • Corn December contract down 1.25c to 354.25c;
  • Soybeans November contract unchanged at 857.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract down C$3 to C$439.80;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract unchanged at €382.75;
  • Brent crude December contract up $1.06 per barrel to $61.63;
  • Dow Jones index up 38.05 to 26,835.51 points;
  • AUD strengthened to US$0.6862
  • CAD strengthened to $1.3169
  • EUR strengthened to $1.1044
In the wheat pits Chicago settled up 11 usc/bu closing at 474.5usc/bu, Kansas was 4.75 usc/bu higher to settle at 398usc/bu, while Minni rallied 2.5 usc/bu to go out at 496.75usc/bu. Corn fell -1.25 usc/bu to go out at 354.25usc/bu while Beans were down 0 usc/bu to settle at 857.75usc/bu WCE Canola softened -3 CAD/mt closing at 439.8CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing lower by 0 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 38.05 points, Crude was up 1.26 bbl the Aussie was 0.00176 higher to settle at 0.68612, the CAD rallied 0.0002 while the EUR gained 0.002
Wheat kicked overnight finding support from both positioning (spec a little shorter than expected) and the A’s – Australia and Argy both lowering production ideas on dry conditions. Additionally Saudi stepped up and bought 780kmt – a decent chunk, even for them. Add in some rain through the remainder of the HRS harvest and the market squeezed higher. Corn was asleep at the wheel ahead of this weeks USDA report which is largely expected to be more of the same. Interestingly the USDA lowered corn conditions by 3pc after the close and pegged maturity at 11pc vs 24pc average. Still nothing on the trade table. Strategie Grain – an independent commentator pegged the EU Canola crop at 17.05Mt – this clearly reflects how bad this year has been – this also means the EU needs over 7Mt of imports which is certainly supportive to Australia.
Locally, the forecast remains dry with cold temps forecasted for the balance of the week, with some scattered showers predicted through South West Victoria. ABARES estimates total Australian Winter crop production at 35.3Mt and revised their wheat production lower to 19.1Mt. Market wise with the somewhat limited rainfall the inverse to new crop is shortening in NSW quickly, interior markets are expanding their drawing arcs to manage the production risk. ASX East Coast Wheat contract still holding up settling $355/t. Barley track markets still remain to be wide bid offer spreads through out VIC, SA and WA on new crop and there is still signs of good interest through the Canola markets for old and new crop with continuing export demand


Source: Lachstock Consulting


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