Wheat and soybeans gained about 3pc after interpreting the USDA report numbers.
- Chicago wheat May contract up US31.5cents per bushel to 1051.5c/bu;
- Kansas wheat May contract up 36c/bu to 1106.75c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat May up 27.75c/bu to 1127.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat May contract up €9/t to €372.75/t;
- Black Sea wheat July contract down $1/t to $352.75/t;
- Corn May contract up 11c/bu to 768.75c/bu;
- Soybeans May contract up 43.75c/bu to 1689c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$2.60 /t to $1011.10/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €4.25/t to €797.25/t;
- ASX July 2022 wheat contract unchanged at A$401/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $1/t to $406.50/t;
- AUD dollar weaker at US$0.745
WASDE day. The USDA made some headway on balances but seemed to keep some more production cuts up their sleeve. The market saw the report as an opportunity rather than a sell – so it was more about what is to come rather than the April numbers.
o US balance changes were actually pretty stable. Lower domestic use, lower exports and higher ending stocks for the 21/22 crop.
o Globally ending stocks were tightened from 281.51 million tonnes (Mt) to 278.42Mt – slightly higher supplies, increased consumption, lower trade which all lead to reduced ending stocks
o Reduced Ukraine exports another 1Mt, now down 5Mt since the war started but they kicked up Russian exports an equal amount to 33Mt.
o Reduced US exports along with the EU, Ukraine and Kazakhstan – higher exports from Russia, Brazil and Argentina. Remember, most of Ukraine’s program has already been shipped for the 21/22 season.
o US Soybeans had increased exports and seed use leading to lower ending stocks. 260mbu ending stocks which is comfortable but can’t really handle and shocks
o Global beans had lower production, crush and trade leading to lower ending stocks.
o China imports lowered by 3Mt to 91Mt
o Brazil production was trimmed again to 125Mt from 127Mt last month but right in line with pre-report guestimate
o Argentina production was seen at 43.5Mt vs trade estimate of 42.6Mt and last months 43.5Mt
o Lower Sunflower crush in the Ukraine was partially offset by increased palmoil and rapeseed oil imports for China and soybean oil and meal imports to India, Turkey and the EU.
o US Corn was unchanged – feed and residual tickled down and ethanol tickled up.
o Global corn saw higher production, reduced trade and larger ending stocks
o Brazil output at 116Mt, slightly higher than the trade estimate of 115.2Mt and the USDA March number of 114Mt
o Argentina corn 53Mt vs trade guess of 51.9Mt and last month’s 51.9Mt
o Ukraine exports lowered from 27.5Mt to 23Mt (they oddly left production unchanged).
Wheat and barley markets last week displayed a bit of a standoff between bids and offers.
Buyers’ coverage levels seem comfortable. However, large premiums of up to $45-50/t remain in the market for delivered grain, port equivalent, compared with prices of grain in the system. if logistics fall over say a week out from delivery. Logistics interruption, say a week out from delivery, can trigger the higher price being paid.
Another farm land sale record was set last week with cropping country in the Victorian Wimmera region trading for $14,700 an acre. The continued run of good seasons, high commodities prices outlook and current low interest rates are driving high demand for land as neighbouring farms look to expand.
The Monday morning BOM 8-day forecast sees the rain prospect fizzle for Vic and SA. The moisture that was forecast to arrive this week has been downgraded. A large part of SA now is only predicted to receive falls of up to 10mm and similar for Vic.