Daily Market Wire 11 April 2023

Lachstock Consulting, April 11, 2023

Canola prices recovered slightly, soybeans eased . In grain markets nett losses were about equal to nett gains over the Easter period.  

Market prices quoted below are the settlements on Monday. Movements are the difference between Monday settlement and Thursday settlement, and they do not account for Wednesday night trade movements. Matif rapeseed, Matif wheat and ASX are exceptions because they did not trade on Monday. Prices quoted below for those contracts are Thursday settlements.

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract up US3 cents per bushel to $678.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract up 12.5c/bu to 876c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023 up 3c/bu to 875c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 down €2.75/t to €251.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat May 2023 down $0.25/t at $280.25/t;
  • Corn May 2023 contract up 10.5c/bu to 654c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract down 5.25c/bu to 1487.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract up C$2.60/t to $774/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract up €8.50/t to €461.50/t;
  • ASX May 2023 wheat contract down A$1/t to $390/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract down $2/t to $392/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$332.20/t;
  • AUD dollar eased more than one per cent to US$0.6642


US Hard Red Winter wheat crop conditions were lower again this week at just 27pc good/excellent, compared to 32pc last year and the market expectation of 28pc.

Above average temps are expected this week, along with mostly dry conditions across the central US which will improve field conditions for spring planting in the Corn Belt but will continue to stress dry HRW areas of the Southern Plains. Warmer, drier weather will be welcome in the Delta and Southeast after heavy weekend rainfall.

Russia threatened to bypass the Black Sea grain deal unless obstacles to its agricultural exports were removed, while talks in Turkey agreed removing barriers was a necessary condition to extending the agreement beyond next month. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia could work outside the deal if Western countries maintain what he said were obstacles to agricultural exports that were getting tougher. Lavrov said that if the West did not want to be honest about what UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had sought to do with the deal, then Ukraine would have to use land and river routes to export its grain.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that for the week ending 5 Apr maize conditions were rated at 48pc fair/excellent (47pc previous week, 76pc previous year), with favourable weather required over the coming weeks to stop the further loss of yield potential. The forecast for output is maintained at 36Mt. Soybean crop conditions rated 34pc fair/excellent (33pc previous week, 69pc previous year). Early harvest was underway in central areas, with initial yields seen lower than anticipated, so current expectations for production of 25Mt could be downgraded. 

The FAO revised 2023-24 global wheat production up by 2Mt to 786Mt. While global production is seen 1.3pc below 2022 it is expected to be the second largest on record. FAO cited near-record area planted in Asia, and a moderate increase in EU production. Russia’s production was expected to be constrained by a drop in winter-wheat plantings, while dry conditions were impacting North Africa and southern Europe.

FranceAgriMer reported that for the week ending 3 April, soft-wheat crop rated/excellent condition edged lower 1pc to 93pc.

Flour Millers Federation of India cut expectations of wheat output to 102.9Mt, compared to the March forecast of 104.2Mt, reflecting unseasonal rains and hailstorms in some growing states in late March. 

Imports of Ukrainian grain to Poland will be temporarily halted to mitigate the impact on prices, but transit will still be allowed, Polish Agriculture Minister Robert Telus said on Friday. Transit would be allowed but would be closely monitored in both countries, so that Ukraine grain did not stay in Poland.
Jordan reportedly purchased 60,000t feed barley from optional origins, at $265.50/t c&f, for Sep shipment.


Local markets led into the Easter long weekend with a very much risk-off tone about them. Bids were hard to come by and offers were standing their ground. SA growers had good rains scattered across the state over the past 4 days. Most winter cropping regions in Australia have a good moisture profile and seeders are ramping up, starting on canola.

The CSIRO is urging growers to be vigilant with mouse monitoring, warning that given the large volumes of grain on the ground following a big harvest last year there is ample food to allow mice to breed up to problematic numbers. Growers are already reporting mouse activity in Queensland and New South Wales summer crops while there are concerns about mouse numbers in parts of western Victoria and South Australia.


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