Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 April 2024

Lachstock Consulting, April 11, 2024

A US dollar rally contributed to markets driving the Australian dollar almost 2 percent lower.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up US0.5c/bu to 613.25c/bu
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat up 11c/bu to 618.5c/bu
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat up 2.5c/bu to 685.25c/bu
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 up €2.75/t to €224/t;
  • Corn December 2024 up 2c/bu to 470.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 down 9c/bu to 1169.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$1.30/t to $658.70/t
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 up €5/t to €466.75/t
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$2/t to $324/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat down A$1/t to $345/t
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$300/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley up A$7/t to $315/t
  • AUD dollar down 117 points to US$0.6512.

International

US inflation data came in higher than expected with both headline CPI (+3.5pc y/y) and core CPI (+3.8pc y/y) beating analysts’ forecasts. The results mean that rate cuts in 2024 will now be pushed back even further. The US dollar rallied after the release.

The USDA April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates will be released today with pre-report expectations of US higher wheat and soybean stocks and lower corn stocks. For global stocks analysts expect the USDA to revise wheat higher and both corn and soybeans lower. In South America, Brazil corn and soybeans are expected to be cut while Argentina’s corn and soybean production is expected to remain at similar levels to March.

Brazil national supply company Conab will release its April estimates today with pre-report expectations of Brazil 2023-24 corn production to come in at 114.4Mt, up 1.7Mt from the March estimate. The range of estimates was 112.1Mt to 117.5Mt. The soybean crop is seen 0.6Mt higher at 147.5Mt, with a range of 146.3Mt to 148.6Mt. Conab numbers have been much lower than USDA, so it remains to be seen whether both forecasters’ revisions get a little closer.

According to the Russian Union of Grain Exporters, Algeria has added five suppliers of Russian grain to the list of accredited traders it can import from, with ACT, OZK, Bio-ton, Rusagro and GTCS added.

US private exporters reported sales of 254kt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

The current crop wheat market in WA is trading at similar values to last week, with APW1 in the Kwinana port zone at A$375-380/t FIS, and other port zones currently bid at levels $5-8/t under Kwinana. Feed barley is holding at $340/t FIS and $350/t Maxi1 malt. Canola (CAN) values have improved slightly to around $690/t FIS Kwinana, Albany and Esperance. New crop values have improved, as the continued high temperatures and fairly dry forecast are becoming more of a concern as planting gets underway. New season canola (CAN) is currently $720/t FIS, and new season wheat bids at $370/t FIS Kwinana.

This weeks line ups data shows April is building with 3.46Mt of total grain on the stem up from 3.11Mt last week. Wheat increased from 1.78Mt to 2.07Mt, barley from 612kt to 665kt, canola dropped slightly from 718kt to 693kt and sorghum is showing 30kt. Vessel wait times increased this week in Adelaide, Geelong and Kwinana. Overall the maximum average wait time is less than 15 days with 7 vessels anchored and 7 loading at Australian grain ports.

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