Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 August 2020

Lachstock Consulting, August 11, 2020

Wheat and canola futures were down; corn and beans up.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US4.5c/bu to 491c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 1.5c/bu to 414c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 3.75c/bu to 490.75c;
  • Corn September contract up 2.75c/bu to 310.5c;
  • Soybeans September contract up 4.5c to 870.25;
  • Winnipeg canola November down C$1.40 to C$488.50;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €1.25 to €177;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract down €2.75/t to €375;
  • Brent crude October contract up US$0.59 per barrel to $44.99;
  • Dow Jones index up 358 points to 27,791;
  • AUD firmer at $0.7171;
  • CAD firmer at $1.3333;
  • EUR weaker at $1.1745.

Wheat markets continued to weaken Monday with Chicago off 4.5¢ to 491¢, KC -1.5¢ to 414¢, Minny -3 3/4¢ to 490 3/4¢, and Matif -1€ to 177€ on the earlier close.  Egyptian buying agency, GASC, was back in the market again after the close, happy to see the weakening of the board and Black Sea region wheat cash prices continuing to keep weaken.

Corn was up 2 3/4¢ and beans +4 1/4¢ after another round of flashed export soybeans sales; just under 700,000t total, with 588,000t to China, and with more sales reportedly in the works today.

The weekly US crop conditions report put corn down 1 point good-to-excellent, 71pc, beans +1 to 74pc G/E which was slightly surprising at this time of year, and sorghum +3pc to 58pc G/E.  Winter wheat was reported 90pc cut. Anecdotally we hear it is a little further along than that, but that’s not a major impact. Spring wheat harvest was reported 15pc complete compared with 25pc normally. Some large corn damage was reported in parts of Iowa and Illinois after heavy storms. Bins collapsed at one elevator, corn was knocked over and there was localized flooding.  It’s unlikely to cause any market impact outside a localized level but we will watch in case it does prove more significant.  Cooler and drier weather is pushing onto the forecast maps for later August across the corn belt, raising some hope about outlooks for higher yields.

Markets are very much focused in on this week’s USDA supply/demand report. Now that more estimates are pushing Russian wheat production back up over 80 million tonnes there are some questions about what USDA will show there and what will be the consequent impact on the global supply/demand matrix. Corn and bean yields remain the big question, although without any objective yield data it’s going to be purely remote monitoring and survey data which will leave plenty of room for people to argue over the figure.

Australia

Markets were very quiet again as the trade digested, and celebrated, rainfall figures.  Trade markets in new season remained largely weighted on the offer side.  There was limited farmer selling interest after values dropped off in the last week.  More rain is forecast this week though there are still some questions about parts of Queensland that missed out.

 

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