Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 August 2021

Lachstock Consulting, August 11, 2021

Most wheat markets lifted 2pc overnight.

  • Chicago wheat September contract up US15.75c/bu to 727c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 12.75c/bu to 714.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 6.75c/bu to 915.5c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €5.25/t to €234.50/t;
  • Corn September contract was down 1c/bu to 549.25c;
  • Soybeans September contract up 6.75c/bu to 1348.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was down C$3.90 to $878.30;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €5.25/t to €545.50/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.1 to 93.1;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.734;
  • CAD firmer at $1.253;
  • EUR weaker at $1.172;
  • ASX wheat September contract up A$4.50/t to A$334/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $2/t to $333/t.

International

The next WASDE report will be published on Thursday.

Wheat markets bounced again in the day session overnight, lead by firmness in Black Sea region cash markets and Matif – Chicago ended up 15 3/4¢, KC +12 3/4¢, Minny +6.75¢, and Matif +5.25€ on the earlier close. Corn was down a penny and beans gained 6 3/4¢ (Matif +5.25€, Winnipeg -$3.9).  Macro markets have crude sharply higher, up a buck eighty to $68.3 WTI / $70.6 Brent after a fairly bullish EIA monthly energy report/outlook, and the DOW is up 163 points.

Markets are looking for a quiet day, at least in volume, as we trade closer to Thursday’s WASDE report. Lower volume sometimes translates to outsized price moves.

Brazil’s CONAB (Brazil’s National Food Supply Company) pegged the corn crop at 86.7 million tonnes (Mt) versus USDA 93Mt in July. Many in the market view the CONAB figures as a leading indicator of the USDA’s change.

Corn belt weather maps in the US remain fairly widespread wet and markets are focusing on the tropical storm/potential hurricane moving towards the US Gulf. There are thoughts it may bring higher storm figures across southern areas and a few potential harvest delays further south.

Another US export sales flash saw two boats of beans booked to China, two boats of beans to unknown and 183,000t of corn to Mexico, including 30,500t sold for season 2022/23.

The new US infrastructure/stimulus bill has passed the Senate and is expected to pass the House without much hassle. It includes some funding for river, bridge, and rail improvements that may help ag logistics.

Algeria’s state grains organisation OAIC is tendering for durum wheat, a US-origin-specific tender, part of their trade deal.  Cash domestic durum prices in the US have stepped slightly higher again this week after spiking late July, with little improvement to yields of crops harvesting presently.

Australia

BOM maps indicate dryness in much of Australia’s crop zone for the rest of this week/early next week. Extended run models are starting to build out the chances for later in August across both WA and the east coast.

Local markets starting up with a bit of excitement today after the global rally, with cash bids looking to step up again.

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